Serie A 2025-2026: Cagliari vs Napoli Prediction - 20 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Cagliari

Home Team
24%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
55%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.7
Expected Shots: 23.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Cagliari L L D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 2)

Napoli W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.86
# Clean Sheets: 1

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.15
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli travel to Sardinia as clear favourites, with a 55.0% probability of taking all three points against a Cagliari side given just a 24.0% chance of a home win (draw at 21.0%). The visitors sit 3rd in Serie A on 59 points, chasing Champions League security, while Cagliari are 15th on 30 points and still looking anxiously over their shoulder at the relegation zone. The model leans towards a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Napoli’s status as favourites.

Match Analysis

Cagliari come into this fixture on a three‑match winless run: defeats to Pisa (1-3) and Como (1-2), followed by a 1-1 draw at Parma. The common theme is that they’ve stayed competitive in every game, never losing by more than two and always finding the net once. Their last three games have produced 4, 3 and 2 total goals respectively, hinting at a team that can score but rarely opens up completely. Advanced numbers back that up: 1.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded on average over their last five, with xG for (0.984) and against (0.856) both under 1.0, plus one clean sheet. Cagliari tend to keep matches controlled and relatively low‑event. Napoli, by contrast, arrive in good form results‑wise with three straight 2-1 wins over Lecce, Torino and Verona. Each of those games followed a similar pattern: narrow victories, identical scorelines, and solid but not overwhelming shot counts (12, 14 and 9 attempts). Interestingly, their defensive numbers are less stable: they’ve conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last five, with 1.154 xG against and no clean sheets in that spell, despite scoring 1.6 per game from 1.194 xG. Napoli are more open and more dangerous than Cagliari, but their back line does give opponents chances, which keeps the doors slightly ajar for the home side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction probability stands at 46.0%, so the model edges towards under 2.5 as the more likely outcome. Two of Cagliari’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (1-3 vs Pisa, 1-2 vs Como) and one stayed under (1-1 vs Parma), but their underlying figures – 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded with both xG for and against below 1 – suggest games that are often tight and finely balanced. Napoli’s last three all finished 2-1, so all three went over, yet their xG profile (1.194 for, 1.154 against) points to matches where chances are there but not in huge volumes, reinforcing the call for a close game that could easily finish 1-0 or 2-0 either way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches
Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction is for a relatively modest total, with 8.68 predicted corners overall. Cagliari’s last three have seen them in generally even battles on set‑pieces: 5-1 in corners at Pisa, 2-3 at home to Como and 3-6 at Parma. Napoli, more front‑foot at home, produced 7-7 vs Lecce, 11-2 vs Torino and 5-2 at Verona, showing their wide play and territorial dominance, especially against weaker sides. Put together, the predicted corners number fits a match where Napoli will attack more and rack up the majority, but Cagliari’s more conservative style should keep the overall count under double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 23.06 expected shots in total, a figure consistent with two sides that create but don’t typically generate constant waves of attempts. Cagliari have posted 14, 8 and 11 shots in their last three, while allowing 10, 8 and 18, reflecting a team that can be pushed back for spells. Napoli, meanwhile, have taken 12, 14 and 9 shots and conceded 12, 7 and 8, aligning closely with their xG numbers around the 1.2 mark at both ends. Those expected shots suggest a balanced contest with Napoli edging volume, but not a shoot‑at‑will type of match.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s superior league position, recent three‑game winning streak and stronger attacking metrics give them a clear edge, even away from home. Cagliari’s compact shape and relatively low xG figures, however, mean this is more likely to be a controlled, cagey encounter than a goalfest. The key factor to watch will be whether Napoli’s attack can turn territorial pressure into early goals, or whether Cagliari can drag the game into the tight, low‑margin battle that suits them.

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