Serie A 2025-2026: Cagliari vs Torino Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cagliari

Home Team
40%
VS

Torino

Away Team
34%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Cagliari L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Torino W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.47
Clean Sheets 2

Torino

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Cagliari are slight favourites at home, with a 40.0% chance of victory compared to Torino’s 34.0%, and an expected goal spread of +0.2 tilting just towards the Sardinians. The model leans towards a tight Cagliari win combined with an under 2.5 goals prediction (46.0% for over, so a marginal edge to the “under”), suggesting a cagey contest. In the table, Torino sit 12th on 44 points, while Cagliari are 16th on 37 and still looking anxiously over their shoulder at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Cagliari’s last three outings have been a mixed bag but show resilience at home: a 3-2 thriller win over Atalanta and a flat 0-2 defeat to Udinese in Sardinia, plus a gritty 0-0 draw away at Bologna. They’ve alternated between open, chaotic games and cautious, low-scoring affairs, which reflects their averages over the last five matches: 1.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded, with xG at 1.154 for and 1.474 against. Two clean sheets in that span underline that when they get the defensive structure right, they can shut opponents down. Torino arrive with a similar recent pattern: a 2-2 draw at home to high-flying Inter, a 0-2 defeat at Udinese, and a 2-1 win over Sassuolo. They’re creating enough to stay competitive (1.152 xG per game over the last five) but scoring only 0.8 goals on average, hinting at wastefulness in front of goal. Defensively they’re not much tighter than Cagliari, conceding 1.4 goals per match with 1.426 xG against and just one clean sheet in five, which suggests a fairly even contest between two sides whose performances and underlying numbers are strikingly similar.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
The call here is under 2.5, despite a relatively close 46.0% probability for over 2.5 goals. Two of Cagliari’s last three games have gone under 2.5 (0-0 at Bologna, 0-2 vs Udinese), with only the 3-2 win over Atalanta pushing the total higher. Torino also have one under and two overs in that spell (0-2 at Udinese, 2-1 vs Sassuolo, 2-2 vs Inter), but both teams’ five-game averages of 1.0 vs 0.8 goals scored and very similar xG profiles support a conservative over 2.5 prediction stance: marginal lean to under 2.5 in what could be a tight, low-margin match.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches
Torino
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a busy game from wide areas, with 10.11 predicted corners in total. Cagliari’s last three have produced 12, 9 and 6 corners respectively, while Torino’s have seen 10, 7 and 10, suggesting both sides regularly allow and generate a decent number of set-piece situations. With both teams often playing on transitions and looking for crosses rather than constant central penetration, the expected corners figure around ten looks well aligned with their recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.86, indicating a match with a fair amount of goalmouth action even if the scoring may remain modest. Cagliari’s recent games have seen combined shot counts of 31 (vs Udinese), 21 (at Bologna) and 21 (vs Atalanta), while Torino’s have hit 31 (vs Sassuolo), 28 (at Udinese) and 28 (vs Inter). This supports a shots prediction in the mid-20s: both sides are averaging around 1.1 xG for and 1.4 xG against, so we can expect plenty of attempts but not necessarily ruthless finishing.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cagliari wins by X goals. Negative = Torino wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cagliari vs Torino with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cagliari vs Torino
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of +0.2 in Cagliari’s favour reflects how finely balanced this fixture is, with only a slight home advantage. Over the last three, Cagliari’s goal difference is exactly level (3 scored, 4 conceded), while Torino’s is the same (4 scored, 5 conceded), underlining how close their recent form has been. That narrow expected spread matches the win probabilities and the similar offensive and defensive metrics, hinting at a one-goal margin either way, with Cagliari just more likely to edge it.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s slight edge at home, combined with their two recent clean sheets and marginally better defensive xG record, gives them the nod in a game that looks like it will be decided by fine details. Torino’s struggle to convert chances into goals could again be their undoing if the match remains tight. The key factor to watch will be which side makes better use of set pieces and wide deliveries, an area that could swing a low-scoring encounter.

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