Serie A 2025-2026: Como vs Fiorentina Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Como

Home Team
82%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Shots: 26.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Como D W W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 6 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 1)

Fiorentina D L L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.90
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.86
# Clean Sheets: 3

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.87
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Como are clear favourites at home, with an 82.0% probability of victory against a struggling Fiorentina side that sits 18th, in the relegation zone, while Como are flying in 6th and pushing the European spots. The model leans towards a home win and a game with goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 58.0%. A draw is given just a 10.0% chance and an away upset only 8.0%.

Match Analysis

Como come into this clash in excellent form: a 0–0 draw with Atalanta followed by dominant wins, 6–0 over Torino and 3–0 away at Lazio. They’ve been solid at both ends, racking up 13 goals scored and none conceded in those three games, and their last 5 matches show strong attacking and defensive numbers: 1.8 goals scored on average, just 0.8 conceded, plus an impressive 2.902 expected goals (xG) created and only 0.862 xG allowed. Three clean sheets in that span underline how hard they are to break down right now. Fiorentina, by contrast, are in a difficult run that explains why they’re 18th. They drew 2–2 at home to Torino, then lost 2–1 away at Napoli and 2–1 at home to Cagliari. They are at least creating chances — 1.2 goals per game in the last 5, with 1.488 xG — but they’re conceding too much: 1.8 goals and 1.87 xG against on average, with no clean sheets in their last 5 games. That imbalance suggests that, against a confident Como attack, they are likely to spend long spells under pressure.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 58.0%, expecting this to be an open contest. Two of Fiorentina’s last three matches (2–2 vs Torino, 1–2 vs Napoli, 1–2 vs Cagliari) have gone over 2.5 goals, while Como had one high-scoring game (6–0) and two unders (0–0, 3–0), showing they can both grind and blow teams away. With Como averaging 1.8 goals for and 0.8 against, and Fiorentina at 1.2 for and 1.8 against, backed by higher xG numbers on both sides of the ball, the data tilts towards another match with at least three goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 26.85 expected shots in total, suggesting a fairly busy game in both penalty areas. Como’s recent matches saw combined shot totals of 34, 24 and 19, while Fiorentina’s produced 33, 34 and 25, all indicating teams that both create and allow plenty of attempts. Those volumes line up with the higher xG figures for each side and reinforce the idea that this contest will generate the expected shots level and enough chances for multiple goals.

Final Prediction

Como’s edge comes from their balance: a strong attack backed by excellent defensive numbers, plus home advantage and a much healthier league position. Fiorentina’s leaky back line and lack of clean sheets make an away upset unlikely. A key factor to watch will be whether Fiorentina can withstand Como’s sustained pressure in the final third, especially early on; if they can’t, this could swing heavily in the hosts’ favour.

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