Serie A 2025-2026: Como vs Inter Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Como

Home Team
35%
VS

Inter

Away Team
42%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 23.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Como D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 1)

Inter W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

xG (avg) 2.83
xGA (avg) 0.74
Clean Sheets 2

Inter

xG (avg) 2.08
xGA (avg) 0.80
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are marginal favourites here, with a 42.0% chance of taking all three points away at fourth‑placed Como, who themselves have a solid 35.0% probability of a home win; the draw sits at 24.0%. The model leans towards Inter edging a tight contest, in a meeting between the league leaders (Inter, 72 points) and a Como side pushing hard to cement their top‑four spot on 58 points. The numbers also point to goals, with an over 2.5 prediction rated at 54.0%.

Match Analysis

Como come into this with confidence after seven points from their last three outings. A 5-0 demolition of Pisa and a 2-1 win over Roma at home showcased their attacking potential, while the 0-0 draw at Udinese underlined their ability to manage games away from home. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, backed up by a strong 2.83 expected goals per game and only 0.744 expected against, plus two clean sheets – figures that confirm they’re not in the top four by accident. Inter, though, still look like the most balanced side in Serie A. Top of the table with the best attack (71 scored) and a tight defence (26 conceded), they’ve taken five points from their last three: a statement 5-2 win over Roma, followed by 1-1 draws against Fiorentina and Atalanta. Their recent averages – 2.0 goals scored, 0.4 conceded over the last five, with 2.082 xG for and 0.804 xG against – suggest they control both boxes better than anyone. It sets up a clash between Como’s ambitious, front‑foot style and Inter’s more refined, ruthless efficiency.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% feels justified in this context. Two of Como’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (5-0 vs Pisa, 2-1 vs Roma), with only the 0-0 at Udinese staying under. Inter have seen one of their last three go over (the 5-2 win against Roma) and two under (1-1 vs Fiorentina, 1-1 vs Atalanta), but their recent averages of 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, plus Como’s 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, hint at a match where a single early goal could open things up. The strong xG profiles on both sides add further weight to an open, attacking game rather than a cagey under 2.5 battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Como
Corners in last 5 matches
Inter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.05 total corners, consistent with what we’ve seen from both sides recently. Como’s last three have produced 9, 8 and 8 total corners, with the hosts often dominating those counts at home (7-1 vs Pisa, 7-1 vs Roma). Inter’s games have yielded 11, 8 and 5 corners, again in line with two attacking teams that work the wide areas and pile on pressure. The predicted corners tally fits a contest where both teams will look to push high and force set‑piece situations rather than sit in.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 23.57 also matches the recent evidence. Como’s last three matches have featured 26, 21 and 26 total shots, with Como themselves racking up 22 efforts in that win over Roma. Inter’s fixtures have produced 26, 28 and 24 shots, underlining a pattern of high‑volume chance creation on both sides. Given both teams’ strong xG numbers and recent attacking form, this shots prediction points towards a game where goalkeepers and finishing quality will be decisive.

Final Prediction

Inter’s slight edge comes from their overall superiority across the season, their top‑of‑the‑table status, and a defensive record that remains the benchmark in Serie A. Como’s home form and impressive attacking metrics mean this is far from a foregone conclusion, but they face their sternest test yet. The key factor to watch will be how Como’s bold attacking approach copes with Inter’s efficiency in transition – whichever side wins that battle is likely to decide the match.

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