Serie A 2025-2026: Como vs Lecce Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Como

Home Team
96%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
1%
Draw: 2%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Como W D L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 6 - 0)

Lecce L W W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.07
# Clean Sheets: 3

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.53
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Como are heavily favoured here, with a towering 96.0% probability of a home win against relegation-threatened Lecce, who sit 18th. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0%, even though the “both teams to score” likelihood is low (no goal at 47.0%). Como, currently 6th and chasing the Champions League spots, are expected to make their superior form and league position count.

Match Analysis

Como come into this on the back of a very solid three-game run against big names: a 2-0 away win at Juventus, a 1-1 draw at Milan, and a narrow 2-1 home defeat to Fiorentina. Across those matches they’ve shown control and balance – 11 shots at Juve, 10 at Milan, and 16 at home to Fiorentina – suggesting they consistently create chances regardless of venue. Their recent averages back that up: 1.8 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded per game in the last five, with an impressive 2.606 average xG and three clean sheets. That blend of attacking volume and defensive reliability is exactly what you expect from a side on 45 points, level with Atalanta and right in the European conversation. Lecce, by contrast, are living much closer to the edge. Sitting 18th with 24 points and a goal difference of -16, they are firmly in the relegation scrap. Their last three games show some fight – 2-0 wins over Cagliari and Udinese either side of a 2-0 home loss to Inter – but the underlying numbers raise alarms. Lecce average just 0.6 goals scored in their last five and 0.612 xG, yet concede 2.526 xG on average, even if the actual goals against (0.8) have been kept down recently. That suggests they’re allowing a lot of chances and relying heavily on last-ditch defending or goalkeeping, a risky formula away to a confident Como.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0%, and the recent patterns offer a mixed picture that just about supports it. Only one of Como’s last three games has gone over 2.5 goals (the 2-1 loss to Fiorentina), with the other two finishing 2-0 and 1-1, but their attacking profile – 1.8 goals scored per game and 2.606 xG – points towards a side capable of racking up a score if they’re clinical. Lecce’s three most recent matches all landed under 2.5 (2-0, 2-0, 2-1 total goals of 2 or 3), and their own low scoring output suggests any “over” outcome would likely be driven more by Como’s attack than by a shootout.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.75 mirrors the recent shot volumes for both teams. Como have logged 11, 10 and 16 attempts in their last three, while allowing 11, 6 and 7 – a consistent mid-20s combined tally. Lecce’s recent games have swung from a meagre 3 shots against Inter to 13 at Cagliari and 16 versus Udinese, while facing 24, 11 and 6 respectively. The shots prediction lines up neatly with Como’s strong 2.606 xG average and Lecce’s 2.526 xG conceded; it suggests a match where Como generate the majority of attempts and quality, with Lecce relying on fewer, more selective breaks.

Final Prediction

Como’s edge lies in their all-round stability: a top-six position, strong xG trend, three clean sheets in five, and recent results against elite opponents all point to a side operating a level above Lecce. For Lecce, their survival hopes depend on discipline and resilience, but the volume and quality of chances they typically concede make this a daunting trip. The key factor to watch will be Como’s attacking efficiency; if they translate their xG dominance into early goals, this could quickly become a long afternoon for the visitors.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel