Serie A 2025-2026: Como vs Pisa Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Como

Home Team
82%
VS

Pisa

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 24.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Como W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)

Pisa W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

Average Expected Goals (xG): 3.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.75
# Clean Sheets: 1

Pisa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.69
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Como are firm favourites here: the model gives them an 82.0% chance of victory, with Pisa at just 8.0% and the draw at 10.0%. Sitting 4th in Serie A on 54 points and chasing Champions League football, Como are expected to overpower a Pisa side stranded in 19th with 18 points and deep in relegation trouble. The game leans towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 59.0% probability of at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Como come into this with real momentum: three straight wins, all by two-goal margins on the scoreboard – 2-1 against Roma, 2-1 away at Cagliari, and 3-1 over Lecce. Those performances were not smash-and-grab jobs either: they dominated Roma with a 22-3 shot count and 7-1 corners, and controlled Lecce 12-5 on shots and 5-1 on corners. Over the last five matches, they’ve averaged 2.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, backed by a very strong 3.096 xG created and only 0.748 xG allowed per game, numbers that underline a top-four side playing with authority. Pisa’s picture is far bleaker, though there is a faint sign of life. They did beat Cagliari 3-1 at home, but that result was slightly against the grain as they were out-shot 14-10 and lost the corner battle 5-1. Either side of that came heavy defeats: 0-4 at Juventus, where they were hammered 25-7 on shots, and 0-1 at home to Bologna in a tight game (6-8 shots, 7-4 corners). Across their last five games, Pisa average only 0.8 goals scored and a worrying 2.6 conceded, with xG numbers – 0.778 for and 2.69 against – that suggest they are second best in most departments.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% looks well supported by recent form. All three of Como’s latest matches went over 2.5 goals (3, 3 and 4 total goals), while two of Pisa’s last three did the same (4 vs Cagliari, 4 vs Juventus), with only the 1-0 loss to Bologna finishing under 2.5. Como’s blend of 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, combined with their 3.096 xG for and Pisa’s leaky 2.69 xG conceded, points to a game with enough chances to clear the 2.5 line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Como
Corners in last 5 matches
Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 8.83, suggesting a moderate corners prediction rather than a barrage from the flags. Como’s recent corner numbers (7-1 vs Roma, 3-2 at Cagliari, 5-1 vs Lecce) show a team that steadily piles up pressure, especially at home. Pisa have fluctuated – 1-5 vs Cagliari, 4-4 at Juventus, 7-4 vs Bologna – hinting at a side defending deep and conceding territory; that dynamic supports the predicted corners figure just under nine, with Como likely dictating where the game is played.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.72 expected shots overall, the shots prediction reflects Como’s capacity to generate volume. They’ve posted 22 and 12 shots in their two recent home wins and stayed competitive in Cagliari with 8 attempts. Pisa, by contrast, have been out-shot in all three recent games (10-14 vs Cagliari, 7-25 vs Juventus, 6-8 vs Bologna), which fits their low 0.778 xG for. Given Como’s 3.096 xG and Pisa’s tendency to allow chances, the expected shots tally looks realistic, with Como likely responsible for the majority.

Final Prediction

Como have the edge in league position, form, and underlying numbers; everything points towards a home win against a Pisa side fighting but clearly overmatched. The main factor to watch will be Como’s attacking relentlessness: if they hit their usual xG and shot volumes, Pisa’s fragile defence will struggle to keep this close.

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