Serie A 2025-2026: Como vs Roma Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Como

Home Team
58%
VS

Roma

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.3
Expected Shots: 22.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Como W W W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)

Roma L D W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

xG (avg) 2.98
xGA (avg) 0.85
Clean Sheets 1

Roma

xG (avg) 1.36
xGA (avg) 0.94
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Como are slight but clear favourites here, with a 58.0% probability of taking all three points against Roma’s 21.0% chance, and a 21.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a home win in a tight contest between two sides level on 51 points, with Como currently 4th and Roma 5th in Serie A. The goals market leans towards an under 2.5 outcome (44.0% probability for over, so preference on the “under” side), suggesting a controlled, cagey battle rather than a shoot-out.

Match Analysis

Como arrive in outstanding form, with three straight wins against Cagliari (2-1 away), Lecce (3-1 at home) and Juventus (2-0 away). They have combined efficiency with control: eight, twelve and eleven shots in those games show they do not need high volume to be dangerous. More importantly, their recent attacking underlying numbers are strong – averaging 2.976 expected goals over the last five matches, while actually scoring 2.2 per game, indicates they are consistently creating good chances. Roma, by contrast, have been more up and down across their last three outings: a heavy 3-0 win over Cremonese, a chaotic 3-3 draw with Juventus, and then a 2-1 defeat at Genoa. The shot counts underline their inconsistency: 23 attempts against Cremonese, 11 versus Juventus, and only 8 at Genoa. Still, their five‑game averages (1.4 goals scored, 1.0 conceded, with 1.364 xG for and 0.942 xG against) suggest a side that generally plays tight games and does not give much away. Defensively, Como look even more impressive on the underlying data: just 0.846 expected goals conceded per match in their last five, compared with Roma’s 0.942. Como have only one clean sheet in that stretch, but the low xG against hints that the defensive structure is sound. Roma’s two clean sheets in the same span back up the idea that this could be a more tactical than spectacular encounter, with both back lines in decent shape.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
The call here is under 2.5 goals, with the numbers tilting that way despite a 44.0% probability for over 2.5. Two of Como’s last three fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Lecce, 2-1 vs Cagliari), with the 2-0 win at Juventus staying under. Roma have seen two of their last three go over (3-0 vs Cremonese, 3-3 vs Juventus), with the 2-1 loss at Genoa also landing over the line. The reasoning behind the under 2.5 prediction lies more in the averages and xG than those recent scorelines. Como’s last five games show 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded on average, while Roma sit at 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. Both sides’ expected goals against – 0.846 for Como and 0.942 for Roma – point to defences that limit clear chances, which fits a scenario of a tight top‑four clash where a single goal or a 2-0 decides it.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Como
Corners in last 5 matches
Roma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction suggests a relatively modest total, with 8.27 expected total corners in this match. Como’s recent corner figures underline that: 3-2 at Cagliari, 5-1 against Lecce and 2-7 away to Juventus – generally low to medium counts, reflecting a side that creates good chances without relying on constant wide bombardment. Roma have posted 9-1 vs Cremonese, 4-1 vs Juventus and 6-3 at Genoa, slightly higher but still not extreme. Putting this together, the predicted corners total around eight fits a game in which both teams look to construct attacks with patience rather than relentless crossing. Roma’s occasional spikes in corner numbers come when they dominate weaker opponents; against a well‑organised Como, that volume is likely to be more contained, keeping the corners prediction in that 7–9 range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 22.31 expected total shots, the shots prediction points to a match of decent but not frantic attacking output. Como’s last three games produced combined shots totals of 16 (Cagliari), 17 (Lecce) and 22 (Juventus), showing they can keep shot counts under control while still scoring. Roma’s recent fixtures have been more open at times, with 25 total shots against Cremonese, 24 vs Juventus and 19 vs Genoa. The expected shots align with the xG profiles: Como’s high 2.976 xG average reflects the quality rather than sheer quantity of chances, while Roma’s 1.364 xG suggests steady but not explosive attacking play. That combination supports a mid‑20s ceiling for total attempts rather than an end‑to‑end barrage.

Final Prediction

Como are given the edge because their recent form, underlying attacking numbers and defensive xG all point upwards, and they have already shown they can beat top opposition, as the 2-0 away win at Juventus underlines. Roma remain dangerous, but their inconsistency and slightly weaker underlying data make them underdogs in this particular top‑four battle. The key factor to watch will be Como’s ability to convert their superior xG into goals against a Roma defence that usually keeps matches tight. If Como’s front line maintains its current sharpness, the prediction of a narrow home win in a low‑scoring game looks justified.

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