Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Bologna Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Cremonese

Home Team
23%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
56%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Cremonese W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)

Bologna L W L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

xG (avg) 0.97
xGA (avg) 1.81
Clean Sheets 1

Bologna

xG (avg) 0.92
xGA (avg) 0.79
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are favoured to take all three points, with a 56.0% chance of an away win against a Cremonese side given just a 23.0% probability of victory (21.0% draw). The model points towards a tight, low‑scoring contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction (46.0% chance of over 2.5, so edging to the “under”) despite both teams usually finding the net. In the table, Bologna sit 9th on 42 points, pushing towards the European mix, while 17th‑placed Cremonese are locked in a relegation scrap on 27 points.

Match Analysis

Cremonese come into this under pressure, with two defeats in their last three outings. They beat Parma 2-0 away in what was a rare clean sheet and a much‑needed result, but that is the only bright spot in a run that also includes a heavy 4-1 home loss to Fiorentina and a 2-1 defeat at Lecce. The pattern is clear: when they open up, they concede plenty. Over the last five games they have averaged just 0.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while their xG of 0.972 for and 1.806 against underlines a side that struggles to create and regularly allows good chances. Bologna, by contrast, look the more balanced team despite mixed results: a 1-0 win at Sassuolo is sandwiched between home defeats to Lazio (0-2) and Verona (1-2). The performances, however, have been solid — they out‑shot all three opponents (15 vs Lazio, 16 at Sassuolo, 19 vs Verona) and their recent averages of 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in the last five matches suggest a side capable of controlling games. The underlying numbers support their status as favourites: 0.918 xG for and just 0.792 xG against per match, plus three clean sheets in that five‑game span, point to a defensively organised team that doesn’t need many big chances to score.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5, with the over 2.5 prediction only at 46.0%, making a low‑scoring game the likelier outcome. Recent scorelines are mixed: 2 of Cremonese’s last 3 matches went over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Fiorentina, 2-1 at Lecce), while the Parma win stayed under; for Bologna, 2 of their last 3 were under 2.5 (1-0 at Sassuolo, 0-2 vs Lazio) and only the 2-1 loss to Verona went over. Cremonese’s meagre 0.2 goals scored per game over five matches and Bologna’s modest xG figure of 0.918 support the under 2.5 call, even if both sides are generally expected to score (51.0% “goal” prediction).

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.22, suggesting a medium volume of set‑piece action rather than a barrage. Cremonese’s last three have produced corner totals of 4, 10 and 8, while Bologna’s have seen 3, 11 and 8, which fits nicely around the 9‑corner mark. Bologna’s willingness to shoot and attack, even in defeat, and Cremonese’s need to chase points in a relegation fight both point towards a balanced corners prediction just under double digits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.21, which matches what we’ve seen lately from both sides. Cremonese games have been fairly measured, with shot counts of 15, 26 and 19, while Bologna’s last three have been more open, with 24, 25 and 34 total shots. Given Bologna’s strong shooting volume and xG around 0.918 per game, and Cremonese typically allowing 1.806 xG, a shots prediction in the low‑20s feels realistic for a match where Bologna should do most of the attacking.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s superior league position, stronger recent goal return and tighter defensive metrics give them a clear edge over a Cremonese side that finds it hard to create chances and keep things tight at the back. The key factor to watch will be Bologna’s ability to turn their shot volume into goals against a defence that concedes quality chances; if they maintain their recent levels, their away win probability looks justified.

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