Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Como Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cremonese

Home Team
18%
VS

Como

Away Team
64%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 39%
Under 2.5: 61%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 22.6
Expected Spread: -1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Cremonese W W L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 0)

Como W W D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

xG (avg) 1.12
xGA (avg) 0.78
Clean Sheets 3

Como

xG (avg) 0.88
xGA (avg) 0.98
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

Como are clear favourites here, with a 64.0% chance of taking all three points away at 18th-placed Cremonese, who are fighting to avoid dropping into the bottom three of Serie A. Fifth-placed Como are pushing the top four, and the model points to a tight, controlled away win with an under 2.5 goals prediction (39.0% chance of over, so value firmly on the under). The expected goal spread sits at -1.03 in Como’s favour, underlining the gap between the sides.

Match Analysis

Cremonese come into this with a hint of late-life: back-to-back wins over Pisa (3-0) and Udinese (1-0) before a narrow 2-1 home defeat to Lazio. That run shows a team still swinging – two wins from three, five goals scored and only two conceded – and three clean sheets in their last five underline a recent defensive tightening. Interestingly, their last five games show just 1.6 goals conceded on average against an xG against of only 0.776, suggesting they often restrict clear chances but can still be punished. Como, though, look even more stable. They’ve taken seven points from their last three: 1-0 vs Parma, 1-0 at Verona and a 0-0 draw against high-flying Napoli. Four clean sheets in their last five matches and just 0.6 goals conceded on average speak of a side built on defensive control. Their xG numbers (0.878 for, 0.98 against) are modest, but they’re clinical and disciplined, which fits a team sitting 5th with 61 scored and only 28 conceded across the season.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
Como
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction given only a 39.0% probability, so under 2.5 is clearly favoured. Two of Cremonese’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Pisa, 1-2 vs Lazio), but Como’s recent pattern is the opposite: all three of their last matches finished under 2.5, with just two goals scored in total. With both teams averaging 1.2 goals scored over the last five and Como conceding only 0.6, plus relatively modest xG figures on both sides, another cagey, low-scoring contest looks likely.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches
Como
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.06 total corners, which fits the recent numbers. Cremonese’s last three have produced 10, 8 and 6 corners respectively, while Como’s have seen 17, 14 and 5, boosted by that 15-2 corner count against Parma. Como’s territorial play and frequent crossing hint at a team that can rack up predicted corners, but Cremonese also force a fair number when chasing games, so a total around nine feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches
Como
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots are 22.58 overall, which aligns well with the recent evidence. Cremonese have registered 7, 10 and 13 shots in their last three, while allowing 10, 0 and 8; Como have fired 23, 11 and 16 while facing 2, 11 and 8. Both sides generate enough efforts to support that shots prediction, even if the xG figures suggest many are from less threatening positions, which again fits a low-scoring but busy match.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cremonese wins by X goals. Negative = Como wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cremonese vs Como with expected spread of -1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cremonese vs Como
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -1.03, meaning the expected spread clearly favours Como to win by about a goal. Over the last three matches, Cremonese’s goal difference is +1 (5 scored, 4 conceded), while Como’s is +2 (2 scored, 0 conceded), but Como’s consistency and defensive reliability give them the edge. That spread matches the 64.0% away-win probability and reflects Como’s stronger season-long balance between attack and defence.

Final Prediction

Como’s solid defensive structure, their 5th-place standing and four clean sheets in five give them a clear edge over a Cremonese side still hovering just above the relegation zone. If Como impose their usual control without the ball, the key factor to watch will be whether Cremonese can convert their recent attacking uptick into clear chances against one of the league’s most disciplined back lines.

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