Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Fiorentina Prediction - 16 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Cremonese

Home Team
9%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
82%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.4

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Cremonese L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)

Fiorentina D L W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

xG (avg) 1.13
xGA (avg) 1.93
Clean Sheets 1

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are clear favourites here, with an 82.0% estimated chance of victory against a Cremonese side given just 9.0%, and both clubs hovering just above the drop zone in 17th and 18th place respectively. The model points towards a tight contest on the scoreboard, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Fiorentina’s status as strong favourites. With only one point separating the sides, this feels like a relegation six‑pointer tilted heavily towards the Viola.

Match Analysis

Cremonese come into this on a three-game losing streak, beaten by Lecce (1-2), Milan (0-2) and Roma (0-3). The trend is worrying: only one goal scored across those matches and eight conceded, with shot counts consistently against them, especially the 2-23 effort at Roma that underlined their problems getting out of their own half. Their recent averages confirm the picture: 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over the last five, with expected goals for at 1.128 and against at 1.934, suggesting they’re allowing better chances than they’re creating and relying on damage limitation. Fiorentina’s form is patchy but clearly stronger. They’ve taken four points from the last three, beating Pisa 1-0, drawing 0-0 with Parma and only badly slipping in the 0-3 defeat at Udinese. Offensively, they’re averaging 1.4 goals scored over their last five outings with an xG of 1.374, so they generally manufacture enough chances to score at least once. Defensively, 1.8 goals conceded and xG against of 1.874 show they can be opened up, but against a low-scoring Cremonese side that imbalance should still favour Vincenzo Italiano’s men.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards a low‑scoring encounter, with a 49.0% probability implying a marginal preference for under 2.5 despite the over 2.5 prediction being close to a coin toss. Two of Cremonese’s last three matches finished over 2.5 goals (1-2 vs Lecce, 0-3 vs Roma), with the Milan defeat the only one under, but those heavier defeats came more from defensive frailty than attacking output. Fiorentina, by contrast, have been in three straight under 2.5 games (1-0, 0-3, 0-0), and their xG profile (1.374 for, 1.874 against) combined with Cremonese’s low 0.4 goals scored average supports an under 2.5 call in a tight, nervy clash where one or two moments may decide it.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total sits at 9.37, pointing to roughly 9–10 corners in this match. Recent numbers back that up: Cremonese’s last three produced 8, 13 and 10 corners respectively, while Fiorentina’s games saw 10, 7 and 7. That fits a corners prediction where Fiorentina’s more proactive approach generates a fair share of set‑pieces, but Cremonese, often pinned back, still pick up corners from counter-attacks and hopeful crosses.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.4, suggesting a game with a decent amount of attempts but not a shooting festival. Cremonese’s recent shot totals (10, 15, 2 taken; 9, 20, 23 faced) show they often concede volume, while Fiorentina’s 12, 10 and 15 efforts hint that they’ll comfortably contribute their side of the shots prediction. Coupled with both teams’ xG numbers – Fiorentina’s stronger attacking metrics against Cremonese’s high xG conceded – a Fiorentina‑driven shot count looks likely, even if the finishing doesn’t necessarily translate into a high scoreline.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s superior attacking metrics, greater chance creation and slightly better defensive record give them a clear edge over a Cremonese team struggling to impose themselves and conceding too many chances. With relegation pressure heavy on both, the key factor to watch is whether Cremonese can resist sustained Fiorentina pressure long enough to stay in the game – if they can’t, the visitors’ quality in the final third should eventually tell.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel