Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Genoa Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Cremonese

Home Team
16%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
69%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Cremonese L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 5)

Genoa L L W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.11
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.74
# Clean Sheets: 1

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.28
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.60
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Genoa are clear favourites here, with a 69.0% probability of taking all three points away at Cremonese, who are given just a 16.0% chance of a home win (draw at 15.0%). Both sides sit side by side in the table on 23 points, Genoa 15th and Cremonese 16th, so this is a key relegation-battle six-pointer despite the model’s strong tilt towards the away side. The game leans towards a tight affair, with an under 2.5 goals prediction backed by a 51.0% implied chance (49.0% for over).

Match Analysis

Cremonese come into this clash on a three-game losing streak, all by a single-goal margin: 1-2 at Atalanta, 0-2 at home to leaders Inter and 0-1 at Sassuolo. They’ve been competitive in spells but blunt in attack, scoring just once across those three matches. The recent numbers underline that: an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over the last five games, with expected goals of 1.114 for and a worrying 1.736 against, plus only one clean sheet in that stretch. Genoa’s form is more encouraging, even if they’ve also dropped points lately. They edged Bologna 3-2 at home, then lost two lively 3-2 matches against Lazio and Napoli, showing they can create and score but also leave gaps. Over their last five, Genoa average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG of 1.278 for and 1.6 against, and they’ve managed two clean sheets in that run. That slightly stronger attacking threat and better defensive base help explain why Genoa are rated so strongly despite being level on points with Cremonese.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an under 2.5 outcome, even though the over 2.5 prediction sits at 49.0%, making this a borderline call. Cremonese’s last three matches produced 3, 2 and 1 total goals respectively – only one of those went over 2.5, perfectly in line with their modest 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded averages. Genoa, by contrast, have seen all of their last three games finish 3-2, so 3 out of 3 have gone over, but their underlying xG of 1.278 for and 1.6 against suggests a slight cooling down from that recent goal-fest pattern.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly average game, with 9.44 expected total corners. Cremonese’s last three outings have seen them in matches with 15, 7 and 8 corners, showing they can either be pinned back (2-13 at Atalanta) or more balanced when games are tighter. Genoa’s recent games have produced 7, 8 and 7 corners; they attack but not relentlessly from wide areas, which fits with a predicted corners figure just under double digits rather than a huge number.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.91, indicating a game with a decent amount of action but not a constant barrage. Cremonese’s last three matches have involved 41, 24 and 23 total shots, while Genoa’s have seen 26, 30 and 21, so the shots prediction is in line with both sides’ recent patterns. Combined with Genoa’s slightly higher attacking xG and Cremonese’s tendency to allow chances, around 26 expected shots feels realistic.

Final Prediction

Genoa’s edge comes from their more reliable attacking output and slightly stronger advanced metrics, which back up the 69.0% win probability even though the table has them level on points. Cremonese’s struggle to convert possession into goals makes a low-scoring away win a plausible script. A key factor to watch will be whether Cremonese can lift their attacking xG closer to Genoa’s level or if the visitors’ sharper front line decides a tight contest.

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