Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Milan Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Cremonese

Home Team
1%
VS

Milan

Away Team
97%
Draw: 2%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Cremonese L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 1)

Milan L D W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.97
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.73
# Clean Sheets: 1

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.91
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.55
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are overwhelming favourites here, with a 97.0% probability of an away win against a Cremonese side sitting 17th and fighting to stay above the relegation line. Stefano Pioli’s team are 2nd in Serie A and expected to show their superiority, with the model leaning towards a high‑scoring game and an over 2.5 prediction at 50.0% probability. A goal for at least one side is rated at 52.0%, underlining expectations of attacking football rather than a cagey stalemate.

Match Analysis

Cremonese come into this on a difficult run: a 3-0 defeat at Roma, a goalless home draw with Genoa, and a 2-1 loss away to Atalanta. They have shown flashes of resilience – the clean sheet against Genoa and the ability to stay in games against stronger sides – but the pattern is clear: they struggle to impose themselves, especially against the league’s elite. Their last five matches tell the same story, averaging just 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The underlying numbers reinforce that picture; with only 0.968 expected goals created per game and 1.728 xG conceded, Cremonese typically allow more chances than they produce. Milan, by contrast, arrive as a heavyweight despite a slightly sticky mini-run. A 0-1 home defeat to Parma and a 1-1 draw with Como have slowed their title push, but they still edged Pisa 2-1 away and remain highly productive in attack. Over the last five matches Milan are averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with 1.908 xG for and 1.554 xG against – figures that suggest they consistently create enough to win matches and generally control games. Even in the Parma loss, Milan produced 25 shots, hinting more at wastefulness than a structural problem.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction at 50.0%, and the recent scorelines support the idea of an open contest. Two of Cremonese’s last three games (3-0 vs Roma and 2-1 vs Atalanta) went over 2.5 goals, with only the 0-0 against Genoa staying under 2.5. Milan have been involved in tighter matches recently – 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1 – but their averages of 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus 1.908 xG per game, suggest they usually generate enough chances to push the total goal tally up.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches
Milan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 24.94, pointing to a match where chances should arrive regularly, especially for the visitors. Cremonese’s last three games saw them take 2, 19 and 12 shots while facing 23, 19 and 29 – they concede a high volume of attempts, particularly against stronger sides. Milan’s shot profile – 25, 6 and 7 in their last three – combined with 1.908 expected goals per match suggests they don’t need huge volume to create quality, but the shots prediction implies they will still rack up a healthy tally against a leaky defence.

Final Prediction

Milan’s superior league position, stronger attacking numbers and far better recent scoring record give them a clear edge over a Cremonese side that struggles to keep opponents at bay. If Milan convert the volume of chances their xG and shots data indicate, their dominance should translate into the three points. A key factor to watch will be whether Cremonese can withstand Milan’s territorial pressure and limit the flow of shots and corners that usually tilt these games decisively in the Rossoneri’s favour.

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