Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Pisa Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cremonese

Home Team
38%
VS

Pisa

Away Team
36%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.1

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Cremonese L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)

Pisa L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

xG (avg) 1.08
xGA (avg) 1.55
Clean Sheets 1

Pisa

xG (avg) 0.74
xGA (avg) 1.91
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cremonese are narrowly tipped to edge this relegation six-pointer, with a 38.0% chance of a home win against Pisa’s 36.0% and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 43.0%. In the table, Cremonese are 18th on 28 points, while bottom‑placed Pisa sit 20th with 18 points, both desperately fighting to avoid the drop.

Match Analysis

Cremonese come into this on a mixed but slightly more encouraging run: two defeats and a draw in their last three, but with signs of resilience at home. They pushed Lazio in a 1-2 loss, were outclassed 0-4 at Napoli, then responded with a solid 0-0 against Torino, where they limited the visitors to just 4 shots while taking 14 themselves. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged only 0.6 goals scored but 2.0 conceded, with xG suggesting they should be creating more (1.078 xG for, 1.552 xG against). Pisa’s form is much bleaker: three straight defeats (1-2 vs Lecce, 0-1 at Parma, 1-2 vs Genoa), and they have averaged 0.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over their last five matches. Their underlying numbers are slightly kinder than the raw scorelines, with 0.736 xG for and 1.906 xG against, but there is no recent clean sheet to point to and they keep conceding at key moments. With Cremonese at home and Pisa’s defensive record a real concern, the small edge logically tilts towards the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 prediction (43.0% probability) fits well with the recent patterns of both sides. Two of Cremonese’s last three games finished under 2.5 goals (0-4, 1-2, 0-0), and Pisa have also seen two of their last three end under (1-2, 0-1, 1-2). With Cremonese averaging 0.6 scored and Pisa 0.0 over their last five, plus modest xG figures on both sides, another tight, low-scoring affair looks more likely than a shoot‑out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches
Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.38, a mid‑range corners prediction that matches how both teams have been playing. Cremonese’s last three have produced 6, 12 and 7 corners respectively, while Pisa’s have yielded 7, 11 and 10, suggesting they do force a reasonable number of set‑pieces even when losing. With both sides scrapping for territory rather than dominating, predicted corners around the 9–10 mark seems consistent with their tendency to build attacks through wide areas and crosses.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches
Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 25.05, a shots prediction that mirrors recent match data. Cremonese’s last three outings featured 21, 32 and 18 total shots, while Pisa’s produced 24, 27 and 25, all close to or above that projected figure. Given the xG profiles and both teams’ need to attack just enough to survive, an open but imprecise contest with plenty of efforts but limited end product fits the expected shots number.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cremonese wins by X goals. Negative = Pisa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cremonese vs Pisa with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cremonese vs Pisa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is very tight: an expected spread of +0.1 in favour of Cremonese, indicating only a marginal home advantage. Recently, Cremonese have a combined goal difference of -5 over their last three (1-2, 0-4, 0-0), while Pisa sit at -3 (1-2, 0-1, 1-2), underlining how fragile both defences are. That slim edge for the hosts lines up with the win probabilities and the slightly better balance between their attacking xG and defensive solidity.

Final Prediction

Cremonese are given the nod mainly because they defend a touch better, create slightly more, and have home advantage in a match neither side can afford to lose. The key factor to watch will be whether Pisa can finally convert their modest xG into actual goals; if they can’t, Cremonese’s marginal superiority should be enough to tilt this relegation battle their way.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel