Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Cagliari Prediction
Fiorentina
Home Team
81%
VS
Cagliari
Away Team
9%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 17 | 27 | 49 |
| 2 | Milan | 21 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Napoli | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 43 |
| 4 | Roma | 21 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 42 |
| 5 | Juventus | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 39 |
| 6 | Como | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 37 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 32 |
| 8 | Bologna | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 30 |
| 9 | Lazio | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 28 |
| 10 | Udinese | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 26 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 23 |
| 12 | Cremonese | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 23 |
| 13 | Parma | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 23 |
| 14 | Torino | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 23 |
| 15 | Cagliari | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 22 |
| 16 | Genoa | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 20 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 17 |
| 18 | Lecce | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 17 |
| 19 | Pisa | 21 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 14 |
| 20 | Verona | 21 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 14 |
Recent Trends
Fiorentina
- Last Match: vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
Cagliari
- Last Match: vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Fiorentina
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.36
# Clean Sheets:
1
Cagliari
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.05
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.12
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
Fiorentina is the clear favorite to win against Cagliari, with an impressive 81.0% probability of securing a home victory. The match is predicted to have under 2.5 goals, with a 49.0% probability, suggesting a potentially tight encounter. Fiorentina currently sits 17th in Serie A, while Cagliari holds the 15th position, indicating a crucial clash for both teams looking to climb out of the lower ranks.
Match Analysis
Fiorentina enters this match on the back of a promising run, unbeaten in their last three games. They secured a crucial away victory against Bologna and managed draws against high-caliber teams like Milan and Lazio. This recent upturn in form is reflected in their advanced metrics, averaging 1.8 goals per game while conceding just 1.0. Their expected goals (2.184) also suggest they have been creating quality chances, which could be pivotal against Cagliari.
Cagliari's recent performances have been more inconsistent. They pulled off an impressive win over Juventus, but a heavy defeat against Genoa and a draw with Cremonese indicate volatility. Their defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game in their last five outings. With an expected goals conceded figure of 2.118, Cagliari's defense could be crucial in determining the outcome against Fiorentina's more efficient attack.
Final Prediction
Fiorentina's recent form and solid defensive performances give them the edge in this matchup. Their ability to create quality chances and maintain a tighter defense compared to Cagliari's leaky backline could be the deciding factor. Keep an eye on Fiorentina's attacking efforts, as their expected goals metric suggests they could break through Cagliari’s defenses to secure a much-needed victory.