Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fiorentina

Home Team
50%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
26%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Fiorentina L D D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)

Genoa D L W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 0.79
Clean Sheets 3

Genoa

xG (avg) 0.96
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are slight favourites at home, with a 50.0% chance of victory against Genoa’s 26.0% and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an expected spread in Fiorentina’s favour, despite the Viola sitting 16th on 37 points, just one place and three points behind 14th‑placed Genoa on 40. The over 2.5 prediction is also positive, with a 56.0% chance of at least three goals in the game.

Match Analysis

Both teams arrive in Florence after patchy runs, but for different reasons. Fiorentina have failed to win any of their last three, drawing at Sassuolo (0-0) and Lecce (1-1) and suffering a heavy 4-0 defeat at Roma. The numbers, though, suggest more promise than results show: across the last five games they have averaged only 0.6 goals scored, yet their expected goals sit at 1.392 per match, indicating they are creating enough to be far more dangerous. Defensively, they have been quietly solid with 0.2 goals conceded on average and three clean sheets in that span, backed up by a low 0.794 xG conceded. Genoa’s form is similarly inconsistent: a 2-1 away win at Pisa was followed by a 2-0 home defeat to Como and a battling 0-0 draw away at Atalanta. Their last three show a moderate attacking threat (three goals scored) but also vulnerability at the back (three conceded). Advanced metrics underline that picture: Genoa average 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over the last five, with xG for at 0.964 and xG against a worrying 1.566. That defensive softness, up against Fiorentina’s underlying attacking numbers, explains why the home side are favoured despite being just below Genoa in the table.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% leans towards a more open contest, even if recent scorelines don’t scream goal fest. Two of Fiorentina’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 (0-0 v Sassuolo, 1-1 v Lecce) with only the 4-0 loss at Roma going over. Genoa mirror that pattern: two unders (0-0 at Atalanta, 0-2 v Como) and one over (2-1 at Pisa). However, Fiorentina’s 1.392 xG for and Genoa’s 1.566 xG against per game, plus a combined recent scoring rate of 1.4 goals per side, support the idea that this could push over 2.5 rather than finish cagey.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly active game in wide areas, with 9.34 predicted corners overall. Fiorentina’s last three matches have produced 9, 11 and 7 total corners respectively, reflecting a side that attacks with width at home (7-4 corners v Sassuolo) but can be pushed back away. Genoa’s last three have seen 8, 5 and 10 total corners, a mixed profile but with enough attacking intent, especially on the road at Pisa (5-5). With both sides needing points and used to playing through the flanks, the predicted corners total just below double figures looks well aligned with their recent habits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.16 suggests a game with regular attempts on goal but not a total shooting barrage. Fiorentina’s last three show extremes: only 4 shots at Roma and 5 at Lecce, but a huge 22 at home to Sassuolo, which fits their strong xG profile at the Franchi. Genoa have been more consistent, posting 13 shots at Pisa, 9 v Como and 7 at Atalanta, while also conceding plenty of efforts (21 from Atalanta, 12 from Pisa). That balance, together with Fiorentina’s 1.392 xG and Genoa’s 0.964 xG, supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s rather than an end‑to‑end shootout.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fiorentina wins by X goals. Negative = Genoa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fiorentina vs Genoa with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fiorentina vs Genoa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Fiorentina -0.36, implying the home side are expected to win by roughly a third of a goal. Recent goal differences back this slight edge: Fiorentina are -4 over their last three (0-4, 0-0, 1-1), but that is heavily skewed by the Roma collapse, while Genoa sit at 0 (2-1, 0-2, 0-0). The expected spread aligns with Fiorentina’s stronger defensive metrics (0.2 goals and 0.794 xG conceded on average) against a Genoa side that allows 1.0 goals and 1.566 xG against, tilting the probabilities towards a narrow home success.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s edge comes from the underlying numbers: they create more and concede less in terms of chances than Genoa, even if the table shows them a place lower. At home, where their shot volume and xG spike, they are rightly installed as favourites. The key factor to watch will be whether Fiorentina can finally turn their superior chance creation into goals against a Genoa defence that has been giving up good opportunities in recent weeks.

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