Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Inter Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Fiorentina

Home Team
24%
VS

Inter

Away Team
54%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Fiorentina W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)

Inter D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.66
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 2

Inter

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.47
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are clear favourites here, with a 54.0% chance of victory compared to Fiorentina’s 24.0%, and they arrive as league leaders on 68 points facing a Viola side down in 16th on 28 points. The model leans towards an away win and an open contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% probability. The draw sits at 21.0%, underlining the gap in form and consistency between the two sides.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina come into this with a mixed recent run: a heavy 0-3 defeat at Udinese, a goalless home draw against Parma, and then a much-needed 4-1 win away at Cremonese. That big victory shows their attacking ceiling, but it also follows a pattern of inconsistency that explains their position near the relegation scrap. Over the last five games they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded, yet their xG figures (1.656 for, 1.004 against) suggest they’re creating enough and perhaps leaving goals on the table in the final third. Inter, by contrast, look like a machine. Top of Serie A, they’ve taken four points from tricky fixtures against Atalanta (1-1) and Milan (0-1 defeat) plus a controlled 2-0 home win over Genoa. Their underlying numbers underline that authority: 2.0 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded on average across the last five, backed up by 2.236 xG for and just 0.468 xG against. Two clean sheets in that stretch and only one goal conceded in their last three games point to a defence that rarely gives up high-quality chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% is supported by Fiorentina’s volatility and Inter’s attacking efficiency. Two of Fiorentina’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3 goals vs Udinese, 5 vs Cremonese), with only the 0-0 against Parma staying under. Inter’s last three have all been under 2.5 (2-0, 0-1, 1-1), but their averages of 2.0 scored, 0.2 conceded and 2.236 xG created per game suggest this is more about game state than lack of threat. Combined with Fiorentina’s 1.656 xG for and recent 4-goal outburst, over 2.5 looks slightly more likely than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches
Inter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.08, which fits with what both sides have shown recently. Fiorentina’s last three have produced 10, 8 and 7 corners respectively, while Inter’s games have seen 12, 7 and 5 corners. Inter tend to pile up corners when they establish territorial dominance – 10 against Genoa, 6 away at Milan – and Fiorentina’s willingness to attack, even when open at the back, points to a steady stream of set-piece situations. That balance supports a mid-to-high single-digit corners prediction, close to the 9-mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.19 also aligns with recent trends. Fiorentina’s last three matches have combined for 23, 20 and 26 shots, while Inter’s have totaled 22, 20 and 22, suggesting a similar volume here. With Inter’s 2.236 xG and Fiorentina’s 1.656 xG averages, both teams are used to generating chances, so a shots prediction in the mid-20s feels realistic for a game where the leaders should attack but the hosts won’t sit back completely.

Final Prediction

Inter’s edge comes from their balance: a potent attack, a defence conceding just 0.2 goals on average across the last five, and the authority of a league leader facing a side battling in the bottom half. Fiorentina’s xG hints they can trouble anyone on their day, but sustaining that level over 90 minutes is their big challenge. Watch the midfield battle closely – if Inter control that zone, their superior chance quality should decide the contest.

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