Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Lazio Prediction - 13 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Fiorentina

Home Team
42%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
33%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Fiorentina W D W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)

Lazio D W W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.54
xGA (avg) 0.87
Clean Sheets 2

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.05
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are slight favourites at home with a 42.0% chance of victory, ahead of Lazio’s 33.0% and a 26.0% probability of a draw. The model points towards a tight home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (46.0% for over 2.5, so a lean to the “under” in a low-scoring contest). In the table, Lazio sit 9th on 44 points, while Fiorentina are down in 15th on 32, but the numbers suggest the Artemio Franchi could tilt this one towards the hosts.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina come in quietly rejuvenated: a 1-0 away win at Verona, a 1-1 home draw with leaders Inter, and a 4-1 victory at Cremonese show seven points from nine and better game control. The shot data backs that up – they outshot Inter 16-12 and were level away at Cremonese – and they’ve put together two convincing away performances after a difficult season. Their recent averages underline a more solid base: 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over the last five, but with 1.54 expected goals for and just 0.87 against, suggesting they’re creating more than the raw scorelines indicate while keeping things relatively tight at the back. Two clean sheets in that run reinforce that defensive improvement. Lazio are also in decent form, unbeaten in three with a 1-1 draw against Parma sandwiched between 2-0 and 1-0 wins over Bologna and Milan. Interestingly, they’ve often been outshot in those matches (15-9 at Bologna, 17-7 at home to Milan), yet found ways to win, pointing to a compact, efficient approach rather than sustained pressure. Over the last five, they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with 1.05 xG for and 1.32 xG against, hinting that they’ve perhaps been slightly flattered by recent results and have relied on resilience and moments rather than dominance. Against a Fiorentina side trending upwards in chance creation, that may be tested.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5, despite a 46.0% probability for over 2.5 goals, and expects a game decided by fine margins rather than a shoot-out. In terms of recent totals, two of Fiorentina’s last three league matches went over 2.5 goals (the 4-1 at Cremonese and 1-1 with Inter just under), while all three of Lazio’s have been under 2.5 (1-1 vs Parma, 2-0 at Bologna, 1-0 vs Milan). The modest averages – Fiorentina at 1.0 scored/1.0 conceded, Lazio at 0.8/0.8 – plus both teams’ xG profiles point towards a cautious, chess-like affair, making an under 2.5 and “no_goal” both plausible outcomes.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches
Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners figure is 9.09, suggesting a fairly standard Serie A total rather than a barrage of set-piece situations. Fiorentina’s recent games have been mixed: they conceded nine corners at Verona but then posted 3-5 vs Inter and 6-4 at Cremonese, indicating that when they control territory, they can limit opposition corners and generate a few themselves. Lazio’s last three show something similar – 7-2 vs Parma, but only 1-2 at Bologna and 1-9 against Milan – implying that their “corners prediction” hinges on how much they’re pinned back. With neither side relentlessly attacking from wide areas, the predicted corners total around nine feels consistent with their current styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.74, pointing to a match with a reasonable amount of goalmouth action but not an end-to-end siege. Fiorentina’s recent shot numbers – 5 at Verona, then 16 against Inter and 13 at Cremonese – show that at home, and when they’re able to dictate tempo, they can generate volume. Lazio, meanwhile, took 7 shots in each of their last three games, often allowing the opposition to fire more (they faced 15 at Bologna and 17 against Milan), so a shots prediction in the mid-20s fits with Fiorentina leading the shot count and Lazio looking to be clinical. That aligns with the xG profile: Fiorentina’s higher xG for suggests they’ll likely be responsible for the bulk of the expected shots.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s edge comes from improving underlying numbers, home advantage, and a recent upswing in control and chance creation, even if their league position lags behind Lazio’s. Lazio remain dogged and efficient, but their tendency to concede chances could catch up with them against a home side whose xG trend is positive. The key factor to watch will be whether Fiorentina can turn that territorial and xG advantage into an early goal; if they do, it plays perfectly into a low-scoring, home-win script.

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