Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Parma Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Fiorentina

Home Team
73%
VS

Parma

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 26.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Fiorentina L W W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)

Parma D W W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.10
# Clean Sheets: 1

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.90
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.09
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are favoured strongly at home, with a 73.0% chance of victory against a Parma side given just a 12.0% probability, and the draw at 14.0%. The model points to a home win and an under 2.5 goals outcome, despite a relatively balanced goal probability of 53.0%. In the table, Parma sit 12th on 33 points, while Fiorentina are deeper in trouble in 16th on 24 points, meaning this is a huge opportunity for the Viola to drag themselves clear of the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina come in from a mixed but improving run. They were well beaten 3-0 at Udinese, but responded with back‑to‑back wins: a tight 1-0 at home to Pisa and an impressive 2-1 away success at high‑flying Como. The performances suggest a side becoming more efficient rather than expansive. Over the last five games, they have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, but crucially their attacking numbers look healthier than the raw scores: 1.946 expected goals (xG) created per match and 1.104 xG against underline a team that is generally creating the better chances. Parma’s recent form has also picked up in terms of results – a 1-1 draw with Cagliari and consecutive wins over Milan (1-0 away) and Verona (2-1 at home). However, the underlying metrics tell a different story. They have averaged only 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five outings, with just 0.902 xG for and a worrying 2.088 xG against. That gap suggests they’ve been riding their luck, especially in the shock win at Milan where they were heavily outshot 25-9.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is not favoured here: the model leans to under 2.5 goals with a probability of 49.0%. Fiorentina’s last three matches have produced totals of 3, 1 and 3 goals – so two of those three went over 2.5, but their recent average of 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, combined with fairly solid defensive xG (1.104), points towards a controlled home display. Parma’s last three also gave totals of 2, 1 and 3 goals, again only one clear “over”, and with just 0.8 goals scored per game and low attacking xG, the under 2.5 looks more likely despite the single‑match variance.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 26.35 expected shots in the match, which fits both teams’ recent figures. Fiorentina’s last three produced shot counts of 10-10, 15-7 and 7-16, confirming that their games can open up even when the scorelines are tight. Parma’s recent outings ended 18-11, 9-25 and 27-4 in shots; they either dominate weaker sides or absorb pressure against stronger ones. Given Fiorentina’s strong attacking xG (1.946) against a Parma defence allowing 2.088 xG, a decent volume of efforts on goal is likely even if the finishing doesn’t turn this into a high‑scoring match.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s superior chance creation and Parma’s porous underlying defensive numbers explain why the home side are so heavily favoured. The Viola’s ability to generate nearly two xG per game against a team consistently conceding high-quality opportunities should tilt the balance their way. The key factor to watch will be whether Parma’s defence can continue to defy the xG tide, or if Fiorentina finally convert their territorial and shooting advantage into a comfortable win.

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