Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Pisa Prediction - 23 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Fiorentina

Home Team
83%
VS

Pisa

Away Team
7%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Shots: 26.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Fiorentina W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)

Pisa L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 6)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.18
# Clean Sheets: 0

Pisa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.34
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.05
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are clear favourites at home, with an 83.0% chance of victory against a Pisa side given just a 7.0% chance, and a 9.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, suggesting a controlled but not high-scoring encounter. In the Serie A table, Fiorentina sit 18th on 21 points, while Pisa are 19th on 15 points, deep in relegation trouble.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina come into this one with a quietly improving run: a 2-1 away win at Como, a 2-2 home draw with Torino, and a narrow 1-2 defeat at Napoli. Across those three games they’ve shown more bite in attack, creating plenty of shots (7, 21, and 15 respectively) and staying competitive even against stronger opposition. Their last five matches back this up: 2.0 goals scored on average, 1.2 conceded, with xG figures of 2.24 for and 1.176 against highlighting that they are consistently creating better chances than they allow, even if they’ve not managed a clean sheet in that span. Pisa, by contrast, are stuck in a pattern of brave but costly performances: a 1-2 home defeat to Milan, a 0-0 away draw at Verona, and a 1-3 home loss to Sassuolo. They stay in games and do get on the scoresheet (four goals in their last three), but they leak too many at the other end, reflected in their last-five average of 2.2 goals conceded per match and 2.054 xG against. Their 1.4 goals scored per game and 1.344 xG for show they can pose a threat, but the balance of play still tilts heavily against them, especially away at a Fiorentina side trending upward.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 47.0% probability that the game stays low scoring, despite Fiorentina being favourites. Recent form is mixed: 2 out of 3 of Fiorentina’s recent matches went over 2.5 goals, while for Pisa 2 of their last 3 also went over 2.5 (only the 0-0 at Verona was clearly under 2.5). However, Fiorentina’s solid defensive xG (1.176 conceded on average) against Pisa’s limited attacking xG (1.344) supports an under 2.5 prediction in a match where the home side may control and manage the game once ahead.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.48, pointing to a game with a fair amount of goalmouth action but not a shot frenzy. Fiorentina’s last three matches produced 7, 21 and 15 shots for them, while Pisa’s yielded 7, 11 and 15, with both sides also conceding plenty of attempts. This shots prediction lines up with the xG data: Fiorentina’s higher attacking xG suggests they should generate the bulk of the expected shots, while Pisa’s porous defence ensures opportunities will arise regularly for the hosts.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s edge comes from stronger recent performances, superior xG numbers at both ends, and home advantage against a Pisa side that concedes too many chances. If the hosts convert their expected superiority into an early lead, the key factor to watch will be whether Pisa can sustain enough attacking threat to break down a Fiorentina team likely to manage the tempo and protect the result.

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