Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fiorentina

Home Team
54%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.5
Expected Spread: +0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Fiorentina D W W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 1)

Sassuolo W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.21
xGA (avg) 0.88
Clean Sheets 2

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 1.48
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are slight but clear favourites at home, with a 54.0% chance of victory against Sassuolo’s 24.0%, and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring affair with an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% for under, edging the line). In the table, Fiorentina sit 15th on 36 points, trying to pull further clear of danger, while Sassuolo are 10th on 45 points and pushing for a top-half finish.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina come into this off a quietly solid run: unbeaten in three, with back-to-back 1–0 wins over Lazio and Verona and a 1–1 draw away at Lecce. The results suggest a more pragmatic, results-first approach, especially away from home, where they’ve been happy to concede territory and absorb pressure. Their last three matches have all been decided by a single goal margin, underlining how fine the margins are in their games. Sassuolo’s form has been more open and a touch more chaotic. They’ve taken six points from their last three – 2–1 home wins over Como and Cagliari, split by a 2–1 defeat at Genoa – with all three matches finishing 2–1. They’re scoring regularly but not keeping opponents quiet, which fits the picture of a mid-table side willing to trade chances. The advanced metrics support this contrast. Fiorentina’s last five games show a tight defensive unit: just 0.6 goals conceded on average, backed by only 0.876 expected goals against and two clean sheets. They score 1.0 per match from 1.208 xG, so they’re not explosive going forward but generally create enough. Sassuolo, by comparison, average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded from 1.23 xG for and a higher 1.478 xG against, underlining a more open style and a defence that allows opportunities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 prediction, with under slightly favoured at 48.0% despite both teams carrying attacking threat. All three of Fiorentina’s recent games have finished under 2.5 (1–1, 1–0, 1–0), consistent with their averages of 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded and relatively modest xG numbers at both ends. Sassuolo’s last three have all ended 2–1 – three straight matches over 2.5 – but their 1.4 goals conceded and 1.478 xG against suggest they may struggle to break down Fiorentina’s more controlled setup as easily.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for the corners prediction is 9.66, pointing to roughly 9–10 corners overall. Fiorentina’s last three have produced mixed corner counts: 7 at Lecce (2–5), 11 against Lazio (5–6) and 10 at Verona (1–9), with the pattern of them often conceding more suggesting they’re comfortable defending deeper spells. Sassuolo’s matches have seen 13 corners versus Como (5–8), 8 at Genoa (3–5) and just 4 against Cagliari (2–2), showing variability but a tendency to trade attacks. That blend of Fiorentina’s cautious structure and Sassuolo’s more front-foot style supports the predicted corners band.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 25.46 expected shots in total, indicating a reasonably busy contest in both penalty areas. Fiorentina’s last three have featured them being out-shot heavily – 5–14 at Lecce, 8–13 versus Lazio and 5–21 at Verona – yet they’ve managed to keep the scorelines tight, which mirrors their low xG against. Sassuolo’s games have been more even on the shot count (11–12 vs Como, 15–14 at Genoa, 9–11 vs Cagliari), lining up neatly with their 1.23 xG for; together these suggest both sides should generate enough efforts to match the expected shots figure.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fiorentina wins by X goals. Negative = Sassuolo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at an expected spread of +0.48 in Fiorentina’s favour, meaning the hosts are projected to win by roughly half a goal. Across their last three, Fiorentina are +2 on goal difference (three goals scored, one conceded), achieved via compact, narrow wins. Sassuolo are +1 over the same spell (five scored, four conceded), but with no clean sheets in their last five games. That fragility at the back, up against Fiorentina’s improving defensive numbers and higher win probability, explains why the market leans slightly towards a home win by a small margin.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s edge comes from their defensive organisation and recent knack for grinding out results, combined with home advantage and the higher 54.0% win probability. Sassuolo’s attacking intent means they’re always a threat, but their inability to shut teams out tilts the balance. The key factor to watch will be whether Fiorentina can control Sassuolo’s transitions; if they do, their measured approach should be enough to tip a tight game their way.

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