Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Como Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Genoa

Home Team
24%
VS

Como

Away Team
54%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 23.7
Expected Spread: -0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Genoa W W L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 0)

Como L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.73
xGA (avg) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Como

xG (avg) 1.04
xGA (avg) 1.02
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Como travel to Marassi as clear favourites, with a 54.0% chance of taking all three points against a Genoa side given just a 24.0% probability of victory (draw at 21.0%). Fifth-placed Como, still pushing the heavyweights at the top of Serie A, face 13th-placed Genoa, whose main focus is consolidating mid-table safety. The model also leans towards a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0% implied by the 47.0% probability of over 2.5.

Match Analysis

Genoa come into this on a modest upswing: two wins from their last three, beating Sassuolo and Pisa both by 2–1 before a 2–0 loss away to Juventus. Those results underline a team that can create chances and score – 1.8 goals per game over their last five – but still looks vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.4 on average. Interestingly, their defensive underlying numbers are better than the raw goals suggest: they’ve allowed just 0.996 expected goals per game over their last five, hinting at some lapses in key moments rather than being constantly overwhelmed. Como’s recent form is more mixed in terms of results but shows a high competitive level. A 2–1 defeat at Sassuolo and a wild 4–3 home loss to leaders Inter were followed by a controlled 0–0 at Udinese. They’re averaging 1.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded across the last five, with xG figures (1.044 for, 1.024 against) suggesting a finely balanced side that tends to manage matches well. Sitting 5th with 57 goals scored and just 28 conceded across the season, they look more polished than Genoa in both boxes, which aligns with the strong away-win probability.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Como
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5, with the over 2.5 prediction given only a 47.0% chance. Both of Genoa’s recent wins (2–1 vs Pisa and Sassuolo) went over 2.5 goals, but their 2–0 defeat at Juventus stayed under. Como have had a similar split: 2–1 at Sassuolo and 4–3 against Inter were over, while the 0–0 at Udinese was comfortably under. With Genoa averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Como at 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus both sides’ xG hovering around 1 per game, a tight encounter makes sense for an under 2.5 call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches
Como
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly standard game, with 9.01 predicted corners overall. Genoa’s last three matches produced 10, 8 and 10 corners respectively – they both win and concede a steady stream from wide attacks. Como’s games have been more varied, with 13 corners at Sassuolo, just 2 in the frantic 3–4 against Inter, and 8 at Udinese. With both sides capable of getting forward but not relentlessly camped in the opposition half, a total around nine predicted corners fits their balanced, structured playing styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Como
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.72, pointing to a game of measured but not rampant attacking. Genoa have seen 25, 29 and 28 shots in their last three matches (for and against combined), reflecting open but not end-to-end contests. Como’s recent outings have been similar: 23 shots at Sassuolo, an outlier 31 against Inter, and 26 at Udinese. Given both teams’ xG figures hovering just above 1.0 per match, an expected shots tally in the mid-20s supports a shots prediction of a controlled match where chances are created but not in huge volume.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Genoa wins by X goals. Negative = Como wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Genoa vs Como with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Genoa vs Como
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -0.55 (home minus away), meaning Como are expected to win by roughly half a goal on average. Genoa’s recent goal differences (+1 vs Pisa, +1 vs Sassuolo, -2 vs Juventus) show a side that tends to be involved in close matches but can be outclassed by stronger opposition. Como have run top teams very close – losing by one goal to both Sassuolo and Inter before a goalless draw at Udinese – and that resilience underlines why the expected spread favours the visitors alongside the 54.0% away-win probability.

Final Prediction

Como’s superior league position, more reliable defence and stronger season-long numbers give them the edge in this matchup, even away from home. Genoa’s ability to carve out chances means they shouldn’t be written off, but inconsistency in defence remains a concern. The key factor to watch will be whether Genoa’s recent attacking uptick can break down Como’s compact back line, in what is likely to be a tight, low-scoring contest.

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