Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Roma Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Genoa

Home Team
10%
VS

Roma

Away Team
79%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 23.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Genoa L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 3)

Roma D W D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 2

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.98
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are clear favourites here, with a 79.0% probability of an away win against a Genoa side given just a 10.0% chance at home; the draw sits at 11.0%. The model leans towards a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 58.0% (42.0% for over), despite both sides showing some recent attacking sparks. Roma arrive in fourth place on 51 points, chasing Champions League security, while 15th‑placed Genoa sit on 27 points and are still looking nervously over their shoulder at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Genoa’s last three outings have been a mixed bag: a heavy 0-2 defeat away to leaders Inter, an impressive 3-0 home win over Torino, and a goalless draw at Cremonese. Those games underline their inconsistency but also a growing defensive resilience, with two clean sheets in the last three matches. The advanced metrics back that up: over the last five games they’ve conceded just 1.2 goals on average from 1.116 xG against, while scoring 2.4 per game from a more modest 1.184 xG. Genoa have been slightly overperforming their expected goals in attack, suggesting a purple patch in finishing that may be hard to sustain against stronger opposition. Roma, meanwhile, look like a more controlled side. They’ve drawn 3-3 with Juventus in a thriller, dismantled Cremonese 3-0 at home, and held Napoli 2-2 away – three results that show both resilience and goal threat against top and mid-table sides. Over their last five matches they average 1.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, with underlying numbers of 1.51 xG for and 0.978 xG against. That steadiness, plus two clean sheets in the same period, suggests Roma’s defensive structure and chance creation are both at a higher baseline than Genoa’s, which explains the strong away-win probability.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5 with a 58.0% edge over the 42.0% chance of an over 2.5 prediction. Two of Genoa’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (0-2 vs Inter, 0-0 vs Cremonese), with only the 3-0 win over Torino going over. Roma have gone over in all of their last three (3-3 vs Juventus, 3-0 vs Cremonese, 2-2 vs Napoli), but their five‑game averages of 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, combined with Genoa’s xG figures, suggest a match where chances may be more limited than those scorelines hint.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.43, which fits neatly with both teams’ recent patterns. Genoa have registered 6, 16 and 19 shots in their last three games, while allowing 14, 7 and 19, indicating that their matches can open up, especially when they’re not heavy underdogs. Roma have taken 11, 23 and 9 shots, conceding 13, 2 and 11, numbers that align with their stronger xG of 1.51 per match. This shots prediction reflects Roma’s capacity to generate chances whilst still keeping opponents relatively limited compared with league average.

Final Prediction

Roma’s edge comes from their superior league position, more reliable underlying numbers at both ends of the pitch, and their recent form against strong opponents. Genoa’s overperformance in front of goal lately will need to continue if they are to upset the odds. A key factor to watch will be how Genoa cope with Roma’s territorial control: if the visitors pin them back and keep the shot count in their favour, the away win and under 2.5 scenario becomes increasingly likely.

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