Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Sassuolo Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Genoa

Home Team
46%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
28%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Genoa L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)

Sassuolo W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.59
xGA (avg) 0.83
Clean Sheets 1

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.17
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Genoa are slight favourites at home, with a 46.0% chance of victory compared to Sassuolo’s 28.0%, and the draw at 26.0%. The model leans towards a home win (H) in a tight contest between 14th-placed Genoa (33 points) and 10th-placed Sassuolo (42 points). The game is expected to be cagey on the scoreboard, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 42.0% and both teams still more likely than not to score (55.0% probability of “goal”).

Match Analysis

Genoa come into this clash with a mixed set of recent results: a solid 2-0 win away at Verona sandwiched between 2-0 defeats to Udinese and Juventus. The pattern is clear – their games have all been low-scoring, tightly controlled affairs, each finishing with exactly two goals. At home against Udinese they dominated territory (7-1 corners, 18-6 shots) but still failed to score, underlining an ongoing issue with converting pressure into goals. Sassuolo’s last three show a similar story of fine margins: a 2-1 home win over Cagliari, a gritty 1-1 draw away at Juventus, and a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Bologna. Again, all three ended under three goals. Their advanced numbers back up the impression of balance rather than chaos: in the last five games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG for at 1.174 and xG against at 1.322, pointing to competitive but controlled matches in both boxes. From an advanced metrics perspective, Genoa’s recent underlying numbers are quietly impressive. Over the last five, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, but crucially their xG for is 1.59 and xG against just 0.834, suggesting they generally create slightly more than they allow and keep opponents’ chances relatively limited. Sassuolo, meanwhile, concede marginally more in xG terms than they generate, which, combined with Genoa’s home advantage, tilts the balance towards the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 42.0% edge, and the recent data for both sides strongly supports that under 2.5 prediction. All of Genoa’s last three matches finished with exactly two goals (0-2, 0-2, 2-0), and the same is true for Sassuolo (2-1, 1-1, 0-1) – three games apiece, zero overs between them. Genoa’s recent averages of 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded combined with xG of 1.59 for and 0.834 against, plus Sassuolo’s 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded and relatively modest xG figures, all point towards another low-total encounter.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.75, which fits neatly with what both teams have shown recently. Genoa’s last three produced 10 corners at Juventus (5-5), 8 at home to Udinese (7-1) and 6 at Verona (2-4), while Sassuolo’s three games delivered 4 vs Cagliari (2-2), 13 at Juventus (4-9) and 11 vs Bologna (7-4). The corners prediction around the 9–10 mark reflects two teams that do create pressure in wide areas, even if they don’t always turn that into high-scoring games.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this clash sit at 25.49 total, a sensible level given both sides’ recent trends. Genoa’s last three have seen 28 shots vs Juventus (12-16), 24 against Udinese (18-6) and 19 at Verona (11-8), while Sassuolo’s produced 20 vs Cagliari (9-11), 25 at Juventus (7-18) and 25 against Bologna (9-16). That volume supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, consistent with their xG profiles: both create enough to keep goalkeepers busy, but not enough to expect a shootout.

Final Prediction

Genoa’s edge rests on home advantage, slightly stronger underlying defensive numbers, and Sassuolo’s tendency to concede just a bit more than they create in xG terms. With both teams habitually involved in tight, low-margin contests, the likely story is a narrow home win in a game decided by one big moment. The key factor to watch will be whether Genoa can turn their territorial and shot superiority – evident in recent matches – into that decisive goal.

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