Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Torino Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Genoa

Home Team
67%
VS

Torino

Away Team
15%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 25.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Genoa D L L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)

Torino L D W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 6)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.97
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.36
# Clean Sheets: 2

Torino

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.56
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Genoa are favored to take all three points here, with a 67.0% probability of a home win against Torino’s 15.0% chance and an 18.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 53.0% chance that both teams score, suggesting a tight contest. In the Serie A table, Torino sit 14th on 27 points, just three ahead of 15th-placed Genoa on 24, making this a direct mid-table battle with relegation pressure in the background.

Match Analysis

Genoa come into this match on a three-game winless run (two 3-2 defeats to Napoli and Lazio, followed by a 0-0 at Cremonese), but they’ve shown they can both create and withstand pressure. Across those games they’ve scored four and conceded six, with competitive shot counts in every match (19, 12, 16 attempts respectively). Their advanced numbers show 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average in the last five, but with an expected goals figure of just 0.966 for and 1.364 against, suggesting they may have been slightly overperforming in attack and relying on efficiency rather than volume of clear chances. Torino’s recent form is similarly mixed: a narrow 1-0 home win over Lecce, a 2-2 draw away at Fiorentina, and a 2-1 home loss to Bologna. They’ve scored five and conceded four in those three, but have often been second-best in terms of shots, allowing 21 attempts at Fiorentina and 14 from Bologna. Their advanced metrics show 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average in the last five, with xG at 1.198 for and 1.562 against, underlining a defence that gives up decent chances and can be exposed. That defensive fragility, combined with Genoa’s recent attacking edge and home advantage, explains why the prediction leans strongly towards Genoa.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 52.0% implied edge (48.0% probability of over 2.5), even though both teams to score are slightly favored at 53.0%. Two of Genoa’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (both 3-2 defeats), with the draw at Cremonese ending 0-0. For Torino, two of their last three also finished over 2.5 (2-1 vs Bologna, 2-2 vs Fiorentina), with only the 1-0 win over Lecce going under 2.5. However, Genoa’s xG of 0.966 for and 1.364 against, and Torino’s 1.198 for and 1.562 against over the last five, hint at relatively modest chance creation overall, which supports a cautious under 2.5 prediction despite recent scorelines.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game are 25.8 in total, a level consistent with two sides that are competitive but not relentlessly attacking. Genoa’s last three matches have been very shot-heavy: 19-19 at Cremonese, 12-14 against Napoli, and 16-14 at Lazio, all comfortably over 25 total attempts. Torino’s matches have shown them allowing plenty of efforts – 7-14 versus Bologna, 12-21 at Fiorentina, 17-14 against Lecce – which aligns with the shots prediction of roughly 26 overall. Their xG profiles (Genoa at 0.966 for, Torino at 1.198) suggest that while chances may not all be high quality, there should be enough efforts from both sides to reach that expected shots total.

Final Prediction

Genoa’s home advantage, slightly sharper recent attacking output, and Torino’s tendency to concede both shots and chances combine to give the hosts a clear statistical edge. Torino’s threat on the break and capability to score (1.2 goals per game over the last five) means they can trouble Genoa, but the numbers still tilt towards a home win in a relatively controlled game. A key factor to watch will be how often Genoa can pin Torino back and convert territorial dominance into shots and corners without leaving themselves exposed at the back.

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