Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Udinese Prediction - 20 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Genoa

Home Team
53%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Genoa W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)

Udinese L D W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.58
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.86
# Clean Sheets: 3

Udinese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.58
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Genoa are slight but clear favourites at Marassi, with a 53.0% chance of victory compared to Udinese’s 24.0%, and they’ll be eager to climb from 13th and edge closer to 11th‑placed Udinese in the Serie A table. The numbers point to a tight, cagey contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (44.0% for over, so the model leans to the “under”) despite both teams showing some attacking life recently. A draw sits at 23.0%, underlining Genoa’s edge but also the potential for a nervy, low‑margin game.

Match Analysis

Genoa come into this on the back of two impressive wins in their last three: a 2-0 away victory at Verona and a 2-1 home success against Roma, either side of a respectable 0-2 defeat at Inter. They’ve tightened up defensively, keeping clean sheets in Verona and in two other of their last five matches, and have averaged 2.6 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded over that five-game run. Their underlying numbers back up that upturn: an average xG of 1.582 for and just 0.862 against suggests they are creating enough and, crucially, limiting chances at the other end. Udinese arrive with a more mixed pattern: a 3-0 home win over Fiorentina, a spirited 2-2 draw away to Atalanta and then a narrow 0-1 home loss to Juventus. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last five, with just one clean sheet, and their xG profile (1.31 for, 1.576 against) shows they tend to give opponents slightly better chances than they create themselves. Against a Genoa side whose recent metrics are trending upwards, that defensive looseness could be costly, especially away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 prediction, even though the over 2.5 probability sits at 44.0%, suggesting a finely balanced goals market. Two of Genoa’s last three matches finished under (2-0 vs Verona, 0-2 vs Inter) and one over (2-1 vs Roma), while Udinese have had two over 2.5 (3-0 vs Fiorentina, 2-2 vs Atalanta) and one under (0-1 vs Juventus). With Genoa’s average of 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded but relatively modest xG at 1.582 for and 0.862 against, plus Udinese’s 1.31 xG for and 1.576 against, a narrow home win in a low-scoring contest fits the data.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches
Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate game in wide areas, with expected total corners set at 9.39. Genoa’s recent matches have produced 6, 9 and 12 total corners respectively, while Udinese’s have seen 8, 14 and 7, suggesting both sides can rack up corners when they open up but are not relentless on the flanks. With Genoa likely to control territory at home and Udinese ready to break and counter, the predicted corners figure matches a game of balanced attacking but not constant end‑to‑end waves.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for around 24.18 expected shots in the match, again pointing to a competitive but not chaotic affair. Genoa’s last three have seen them take 11, 11 and 6 shots, while conceding 8, 8 and 14; Udinese have attempted 10, 8 and 10 while allowing 22, 22 and 10. Those shot volumes, aligned with Genoa’s stronger recent xG and Udinese’s higher xG conceded, support a scenario where the hosts edge both chances created and shot quality without the game turning into a shootout.

Final Prediction

Genoa’s home advantage, better recent form and superior defensive metrics give them a genuine edge over Udinese, reflected in that 53.0% win probability. Udinese’s tendency to concede good chances away from home could be decisive against a Genoa side that has sharpened both ends of the pitch. The key factor to watch will be how Udinese’s back line copes with Genoa’s improving attack in a match likely decided by fine margins rather than a goal glut.

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