Serie A 2025-2026: Inter vs Atalanta Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Inter

Home Team
68%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
15%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 28.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Inter L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 5 - 0)

Atalanta D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

xG (avg) 2.90
xGA (avg) 0.75
Clean Sheets 3

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.89
xGA (avg) 2.42
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are clear favourites at San Siro with a 68.0% probability of victory against an Atalanta side given just a 15.0% chance, with the draw at 16.0%. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction, with a 57.0% chance of at least three goals in the game. Inter sit top of Serie A on 67 points, while Atalanta are 7th with 46 points and chasing a late push towards the Champions League spots.

Match Analysis

Inter come into this fixture having won two of their last three league games, responding well to a narrow 1-0 derby defeat away to Milan with back-to-back 2-0 wins over Genoa and Lecce. Those victories were built on control as much as scoreline: 10-2 corners and 14-6 shots against Genoa, then an even more dominant 24-3 shots away to Lecce. Over the last five matches they have averaged 2.8 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, with three clean sheets, underlining why they’re leading the league. Atalanta’s recent form has been more mixed: a 2-2 home draw with Udinese, a 2-1 defeat at Sassuolo and a 2-1 home win against Napoli. The pattern is of competitive, high-intensity games but not always matched by results. Their last five outings show 1.2 goals scored per game and just 0.6 conceded, but the advanced numbers hint at fragility: they allow an average of 2.416 expected goals against, almost three times Inter’s 0.752. In contrast, Inter’s 2.898 expected goals for per match suggests they are consistently creating chances of real quality.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 57.0%, and the recent scorelines point in the same direction. Two of Atalanta’s last three matches (2-2 vs Udinese, 2-1 vs Sassuolo, 2-1 vs Napoli) went over 2.5 goals, while all three of Inter’s most recent games stayed under 2.5 despite their strong attacking numbers. Inter’s average of 2.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, alongside almost 2.9 xG created, suggests they are due more multi-goal matches, especially against an Atalanta side whose xG conceded is notably high.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Inter
Corners in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.8 total corners, which fits both teams’ attacking profiles. Inter have racked up 6, 10 and 10 corners in their last three games (26 in total), while conceding just 5, showing how their territorial dominance forces opponents deep. Atalanta have also been corner-heavy, with 11, 9 and 6 in their recent fixtures (26 as well), reflecting an aggressive, front-foot style. Combining these trends, predicted corners close to 10 look realistic in what should be an end-to-end contest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Inter
Shots in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 28.04, matching what we’ve seen from both sides in recent weeks. Inter’s last three games produced 11, 14 and 24 attempts (49 in total), while Atalanta’s yielded 22, 26 and 10 (58 in total), numbers that support a positive shots prediction. Given Inter’s strong xG figures and Atalanta’s tendency to both create and allow chances, a high volume of efforts on goal fits the pattern.

Final Prediction

Inter’s edge comes from their blend of defensive solidity and relentlessly high chance creation, backed by league-leading form and superior underlying numbers. Atalanta have the attacking ambition to make this competitive, but their xG against suggests they may struggle to contain the leaders. The key factor to watch will be how Atalanta cope with Inter’s sustained pressure and crossing game, which could dictate both the scoreline and the flow of chances.

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