Serie A 2025-2026: Inter vs Cagliari Prediction - 17 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Inter

Home Team
82%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Inter W W D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)

Cagliari W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

xG (avg) 3.04
xGA (avg) 0.74
Clean Sheets 0

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.19
xGA (avg) 1.80
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are clear favourites at San Siro, with an 82.0% probability of taking all three points against a Cagliari side given just an 8.0% chance, and only a 10.0% likelihood of a draw. The league table underlines the gap: Inter sit top in 1st place with 75 points, while Cagliari are down in 16th on 33 points and still looking over their shoulders at the relegation zone. The model leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 56.0% and both teams scoring (goal) at 53.0%.

Match Analysis

Inter come into this with momentum and goals. In their last three matches they edged a 4-3 thriller away at Como, demolished Roma 5-2 at home, and then drew 1-1 away to Fiorentina. That run shows both their attacking power and a slight defensive looseness: 10 goals scored and 6 conceded across those fixtures. The advanced metrics back up the eye test: over the last five games they’ve averaged 3.4 goals scored and 3.038 expected goals, but also 1.4 goals conceded from just 0.744 xG against, underlining that opponents have needed very few clear chances to score and Inter have not kept a single clean sheet in that spell. Cagliari’s recent form is more restrained but competitive. They beat Cremonese 1-0 at home, lost 2-1 away to Sassuolo and were narrowly beaten 1-0 by Napoli, so three tight matches with only five total goals. Their last five games show 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average, with xG figures of 1.186 for and 1.804 against – suggesting they generally create a little but allow opponents the better chances. Up against the league leaders’ high-powered attack, those numbers point to a tough night, especially away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 56.0%, and Inter’s recent scorelines strongly support that. Two of Inter’s last three matches – 4-3 vs Como and 5-2 vs Roma – went comfortably over 2.5, with only the 1-1 draw at Fiorentina staying under. Cagliari, by contrast, have seen all three of their most recent games finish under 2.5 (1-0, 1-2, 0-1), but their average of 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, plus 1.804 xG conceded, suggests they could be stretched by Inter’s 3.4 goals-per-game attack and tip this one towards over 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Inter
Corners in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.45, pointing to a fairly active but not extreme corners count. Inter’s recent games have produced 2 corners at Como (1-1), 11 vs Roma (7-4), and 8 at Fiorentina (5-3), showing that when they dominate territory at home, the corners climb. Cagliari’s last three have seen 11 vs Cremonese (6-5), 4 at Sassuolo (2-2), and 9 against Napoli (2-7), figures consistent with a side often forced back and conceding corners. That pattern fits a corners prediction close to the expected 9–10 range, driven mainly by Inter’s attacking width and pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Inter
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.08, which matches what we’ve seen from both sides. Inter’s last three have been wild at times: they took 7 shots to Como’s 24, then out-shot Roma 17-9, and went 12-16 at Fiorentina, underlining matches that are open and chance-heavy at both ends. Cagliari produced 17-5 shots against Cremonese, 11-9 at Sassuolo and 7-17 vs Napoli, generally allowing opponents a healthy number of efforts. With Inter’s strong xG profile and Cagliari’s tendency to concede attempts, a shots prediction in the mid-20s looks well supported by the data.

Final Prediction

Inter’s edge comes from a combination of league position, firepower and underlying numbers: they are top of Serie A, scoring heavily, and generating over 3.0 expected goals per game. Cagliari’s resilience in tight matches can’t be ignored, but their defensive metrics suggest they will have to absorb sustained pressure. The key factor to watch is how often Inter can turn their territorial dominance into clear chances inside the box – if they do, the probability points firmly towards a home win and a high-scoring evening.

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