Serie A 2025-2026: Inter vs Genoa Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Inter

Home Team
97%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
1%
Draw: 2%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Shots: 27.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Inter W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 6 - 2)

Genoa W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

Average Expected Goals (xG): 3.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.87
# Clean Sheets: 3

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.57
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are overwhelming favourites at San Siro, with a 97.0% probability of victory against 14th-placed Genoa. The leaders sit top of Serie A on 64 points, while Genoa are on 27 and still glancing over their shoulders at the relegation battle. The model points towards goals as well, with an over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% and both teams to score (goal) rated at 54.0%.

Match Analysis

Inter come into this clash in ruthless domestic form. Three straight league wins – 2-0 at Lecce, 3-2 at home to Juventus and a 5-0 demolition away to Sassuolo – underline both their attacking variety and ability to control games. Across the last five matches they are averaging 3.0 goals scored, backed up by a hefty 3.314 expected goals per game, while conceding just 1.4 with three clean sheets in that run. Defensively, the underlying numbers are even more dominant: only 0.874 expected goals conceded on average, suggesting that most opponents are struggling to carve out clear chances. Genoa’s recent form is more mixed but not completely bleak. A 3-0 home win over Torino showed they can punish weaker defences, but that was followed by a goalless draw at Cremonese and a narrow 3-2 home defeat to Napoli. Over their last five games they have managed only 0.8 goals per match, from an average of 1.238 expected goals, and are conceding 1.4 with 1.572 expected goals against. Two clean sheets in that spell show some defensive organisation, but those xG figures hint that better finishing from opponents could hurt them – a worrying sign when visiting the league’s most clinical attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% looks well supported by recent scorelines. Two of Inter’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Juventus, 5-0 vs Sassuolo), with only the 2-0 win at Lecce falling under. Genoa have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 as well (3-0 vs Torino, 2-3 vs Napoli) with one under (0-0 at Cremonese). Inter’s 3.0 goals scored and 3.314 xG per game against Genoa’s average of 1.4 conceded and 1.572 xG against make a high‑scoring outcome more likely than an under 2.5 scenario.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Inter
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 27.94 hints at a match where Inter do most of the attacking but Genoa still create sporadic chances. Inter’s last three games have seen them post 24, 21 and 23 shots, while allowing only 3, 11 and 7 – volumes that line up neatly with their strong xG numbers and relentless attacking play. Genoa have attempted 16, 19 and 12 shots in their last three, conceding 7, 19 and 14, which supports a shots prediction in the high‑20s overall, with Inter likely responsible for the majority.

Final Prediction

Inter’s edge is clear: league‑leading form, a massive 97.0% win probability, superior attacking output and far stronger underlying metrics at both ends of the pitch. Genoa’s occasional flashes of threat suggest they might contribute to the scoreline, but their defensive xG against makes this a daunting trip. The key factor to watch will be how long Genoa can resist Inter’s early pressure; if the leaders score first, this could quickly turn into another statement win for the title favourites.

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