Serie A 2025-2026: Inter vs Juventus Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Inter

Home Team
61%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 26.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Inter W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 6 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)

Juventus D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 5 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

Average Expected Goals (xG): 3.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.80
# Clean Sheets: 4

Juventus

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.13
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.52
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are favoured to win this Derby d’Italia, with a 61.0% probability of a home victory against Juventus’ 19.0% chance, and a 20.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards Inter at San Siro and an over 2.5 goals prediction, with a 60.0% chance of at least three goals. Inter sit top of Serie A on 58 points, while Juventus are fourth on 46, looking to close the gap on the league leaders.

Match Analysis

Inter come into this clash in devastating form, winning their last three matches against Sassuolo (5-0), Cremonese (2-0) and Pisa (6-2), scoring 13 goals and conceding just 2. They have dominated both the scoreline and the stat sheet, racking up 23, 15 and 34 shots in those games and consistently out-cornering their opponents. Over the last five matches, they are averaging 3.2 goals scored, only 1.0 conceded, and 3.272 expected goals created, with four clean sheets indicating both ruthless attacking and defensive control. Juventus also arrive in strong shape, unbeaten in their last three: a 2-2 draw with Lazio, a 4-1 win away at Parma and a 3-0 home victory over Napoli. They’ve scored 9 and conceded just 3 across those fixtures, with particularly impressive shot volume at home to Lazio (34 attempts). Over their last five, they average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, backed up by 2.132 expected goals for and a miserly 0.518 expected goals against, plus two clean sheets. Both teams therefore bring high attacking output and solid defensive numbers, but Inter’s slightly higher scoring and xG profile, combined with home advantage, tilt the balance their way.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction stands at 60.0%, expecting a match with goals rather than a tight, low-scoring affair. All 3 of Inter’s recent matches sailed over 2.5 goals (5-0, 2-0, 6-2: two of them clearly over, one exactly on the edge but contributing to a high scoring trend overall), while all 3 of Juventus’ games also reached at least three goals (2-2, 4-1, 3-0). With Inter averaging 3.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Juve at 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, supported by strong xG figures on both sides, the data backs a game where attacking quality should create enough chances for three or more goals.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Inter
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 26.84, indicating a contest with frequent efforts on goal but not a complete shootout. Inter’s recent games saw them involved in 30, 24 and 42 total shots, while Juventus’ last three contained 43, 25 and 21 attempts, all hovering around or above the expected shots line. With both sides’ xG numbers (Inter at 3.272 and Juve at 2.132 on average) closely tied to high shot volumes, the shots prediction suggests a match where both attacks test the opposition goalkeepers regularly.

Final Prediction

Inter’s edge comes from their superior league position, relentless scoring form and slightly stronger attacking metrics, combined with home advantage. Juventus, however, have enough defensive resilience and recent attacking output to make this a genuine battle. The key factor to watch will be which side controls the shot count and quality in the final third, as that should decide whether Inter’s attacking supremacy or Juve’s compact structure prevails.

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