Serie A 2025-2026: Inter vs Roma Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Inter

Home Team
72%
VS

Roma

Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Inter D D L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)

Roma W L L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

xG (avg) 2.97
xGA (avg) 0.65
Clean Sheets 2

Roma

xG (avg) 1.17
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are firm favourites at San Siro, with a 72.0% chance of victory against a Roma side given just a 13.0% probability of the upset. The model leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0%, in a clash between the league leaders (Inter, 1st with 69 points) and a Roma team trying to force their way back into the Champions League places (6th with 54 points).

Match Analysis

Inter come into this with a slight wobble in results but not in performances: two draws (1-1 at Fiorentina and 1-1 at home to Atalanta) and a narrow 0-1 derby defeat to Milan. They have dominated spells of those games in terms of shots and territory, and their overall profile remains that of the most complete side in Serie A. Over the last five matches, Inter have averaged 2.6 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, backed up by excellent underlying numbers: 2.972 expected goals created and only 0.65 expected goals allowed per game, with two clean sheets in that run. Roma, by contrast, arrive from a more mixed spell. They edged Lecce 1-0 at home but suffered back-to-back 1-2 defeats away to Como and Genoa. Those losses exposed some defensive vulnerability on the road, while the Lecce win underlined their ability to grind out tight games. Their last five outings show 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, with 1.166 expected goals for and 1.316 against, plus two clean sheets. Respectable, but not at the level of Inter’s dominance, especially when Roma leave home comforts behind.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with over 2.5 goals at 59.0%, despite a slightly cagey recent trend: all of Inter’s last three matches ended under 2.5 (1-1, 1-1, 0-1), and all three of Roma’s also stayed under 2.5 (1-0, 1-2, 1-2). The reasoning is in the broader numbers: Inter’s attack is averaging 2.6 goals per game with nearly 3.0 xG, and Roma both score and concede around a goal to a goal and a half per match. Over a 90-minute contest with these profiles, the over 2.5 prediction is supported by both attacking output and expected goals, even if recent scorelines have been tighter.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Inter
Corners in last 5 matches
Roma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively busy game from wide areas, with 9.22 expected total corners. Inter’s last three matches produced corner totals of 8 (5-3 vs Fiorentina), 5 (2-3 vs Atalanta) and 7 (6-1 vs Milan), showing their ability to rack up corners when they pin teams back. Roma’s games have been more volatile: 12 corners against Lecce (10-2), just 8 at Como (1-7) and 9 at Genoa (6-3). With Inter typically on the front foot at home and Roma having spells where they are forced deep, the predicted corners figure around nine fits both teams’ recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Inter
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction suggests around 24.15 expected shots in total, which aligns neatly with how these sides have been playing. Inter’s last three matches saw them involved in games with 28 shots at Fiorentina (12-16), 24 against Atalanta (16-8) and 20 in the derby with Milan (11-9). Roma’s recent fixtures brought 22 shots versus Lecce (14-8), a huge 25 at Como (3-22) and 19 at Genoa (8-11). Given Inter’s strong xG of 2.972 per match and Roma’s willingness to both give up and take attempts, a mid‑20s figure for expected shots looks well grounded.

Final Prediction

Inter’s edge comes from their combination of league-leading form, superior underlying numbers and home advantage, all reflected in that 72.0% win probability. Roma can be stubborn and have shown they can keep games tight, but their recent away form and xG profile suggest they are more likely to be hanging on than dictating. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Inter can turn their territorial dominance into clear chances; if they find their early rhythm in the final third, Roma may struggle to keep the scoreline under control.

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