Serie A 2025-2026: Juventus vs Bologna Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Juventus

Home Team
66%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 26.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Juventus W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 4 - 0)

Bologna W W L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

xG (avg) 2.38
xGA (avg) 0.98
Clean Sheets 4

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 0.73
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 66.0% probability of victory against Bologna’s 16.0% chance, and a 17.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a home win in a match expected to be open, with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0%. In the table, Juventus sit 4th on 60 points, chasing Champions League security, while Bologna are 8th with 48 points and still pushing to climb into the European conversation.

Match Analysis

Juventus arrive in good form and with defensive steel. They’ve taken seven points from their last three games: a gritty 1-0 away win at Atalanta, a controlled 2-0 home victory over Genoa, and a 1-1 draw with Sassuolo. Across those fixtures, they managed two clean sheets and conceded just once, underlining why they have 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches. Going forward, Juventus have averaged 1.8 goals over the last five, backed by an impressive 2.378 expected goals (xG) per game – a sign they regularly create enough chances to win matches, even when the scorelines stay tight. Bologna’s recent run is solid rather than spectacular, with two wins and one defeat in their last three outings. They beat Lecce 2-0 at home and edged Cremonese 2-1 away, before a 0-2 home loss to Lazio that halted their momentum. Their underlying numbers show a slightly more conservative attacking profile: 1.6 goals scored on average over the last five matches, from 1.098 xG, and a strong defensive record with only 0.734 xG conceded and 1.0 actual goals against per game, plus 2 clean sheets. That profile suggests a compact, organised side that can frustrate opponents, but may struggle to match Juventus’ attacking volume over 90 minutes in Turin.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 59.0%, and the data slightly leans in that direction. For Juventus, 2 of their last 3 matches finished under 2.5 goals (1-0 at Atalanta, 2-0 vs Genoa), with only the 1-1 against Sassuolo hovering just below the line, yet their averages of 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, plus 2.378 xG for and 0.98 xG against, point to games that could easily open up. Bologna have seen 1 of their last 3 go over 2.5 (the 2-1 win at Cremonese), with the other two finishing 2-0 and 0-2; combined with 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average, there is enough attacking threat on both sides to support an over 2.5 call rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.74 total corners, suggesting a moderately active game in wide areas. Juventus’ last three matches produced corner counts of 2-13 at Atalanta, 5-5 vs Genoa and 9-4 vs Sassuolo – they can both give up and generate plenty of corners when the tempo rises. Bologna’s recent numbers (8-6 vs Lecce, 4-2 at Cremonese, 2-1 vs Lazio) show a capable attacking side but not an extreme volume team. With Juventus expected to push at home and Bologna organised but dangerous on the break, the predicted corners figure around 10 fits the balance of pressure and counter-attacks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction gives an expected shots total of 26.02, indicating a match with regular goalmouth action but not a complete shoot-out. Juventus’ last three have seen them take 7, 16 and 18 shots respectively, while facing 22, 12 and 7 – evidence of a side that can both control games and suffer in spells. Bologna, meanwhile, have registered 12, 14 and 15 shots in their recent fixtures, conceding 6, 9 and 9. Those figures align neatly with the 26.02 expected shots and tie in with the xG profiles: Juventus’ higher attacking xG suggests slightly better chances, but Bologna should contribute their share of efforts.

Final Prediction

Juventus’ edge lies in their blend of strong recent form, defensive reliability (4 clean sheets in 5) and superior attacking production, especially at home, which justifies their 66.0% winning probability. Bologna’s resilience and compact structure mean this won’t be straightforward, but their lower xG output may tell over the course of the game. The key factor to watch will be whether Bologna can contain Juventus’ chance creation; if the home side reach anything close to their recent 2.378 xG average, the visitors will find it hard to leave Turin with points.

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