Serie A 2025-2026: Juventus vs Como Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Juventus

Home Team
58%
VS

Como

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 25.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Juventus L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)

Como D L D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 6 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.76
# Clean Sheets: 1

Como

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are favored to take all three points at home, with a 58.0% probability of a home win against Como’s 21.0% chance, while the draw also sits at 21.0%. The match also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% probability. In the table, Juventus are 5th on 46 points, just four points above 6th-placed Como on 42, adding extra weight to this top‑six clash.

Match Analysis

Juventus come into this fixture with mixed but lively form: a 4-1 win at Parma, a 2-2 home draw with Lazio, and a narrow 3-2 away loss to leaders Inter. Those three games all featured at least four goals, and Juve have been proactive in attack, generating 34 shots against Lazio and 15 at Parma. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 2.6 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers of 2.866 expected goals (xG) for and only 0.76 xG against. Como’s recent results look steadier but equally competitive: a 1-1 draw away at Milan, a 2-1 home defeat to Fiorentina, and a 0-0 stalemate with Atalanta. Performances have arguably been better than the raw outcomes suggest; they out-shot Fiorentina 16-7 and Atalanta 28-6, yet only took a single point from those two home games. Over their last five, Como average 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, with 1.8 xG for and 1.232 xG against, plus three clean sheets – numbers that highlight a disciplined, well-organised side capable of limiting chances while still posing a threat.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Como
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0%, and Juventus’ recent scorelines support that: all 3 of their last 3 matches (5, 4 and 5 total goals) went over 2.5. Como are more balanced, with 1 of their last 3 games over 2.5 (1-2 vs Fiorentina) and 2 under 2.5 (1-1 at Milan, 0-0 vs Atalanta). With Juve averaging 2.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Como at 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded over their last five, plus both sides’ xG numbers trending positively, this setup favors another open contest rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches
Como
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this clash stand at 25.72, indicating a reasonably active attacking game without being frenetic. Juventus alone have generated 11, 34 and 15 shots in their last three, while Como have taken 10, 16 and 28, repeatedly getting efforts away even against strong opposition. Those volumes align with their strong xG trends and make a shots prediction around 25–26 total realistic, with both sides contributing.

Final Prediction

Juventus have the edge thanks to stronger recent attacking numbers, home advantage and slightly better efficiency in turning pressure into goals. Como’s solid defensive record and ability to rack up shots mean they should not be underestimated, but the key factor to watch will be whether Juve’s high xG attack can finally crack a Como back line that has kept three clean sheets in its last five matches.

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