Serie A 2025-2026: Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Juventus

Home Team
76%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +1.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Juventus W D D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)

Fiorentina D L D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

xG (avg) 2.46
xGA (avg) 0.74
Clean Sheets 4

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 0.69
xGA (avg) 1.81
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are clear favourites at home, with a 76.0% chance of victory against Fiorentina’s 11.0%, and an expected home win in this matchup. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% probability, hinting at a game with goals in it. In the table, Juventus sit 3rd on 68 points and pushing to consolidate a Champions League place, while Fiorentina are 15th with 38 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Juventus come into this on a solid run: a 1-0 win away at Lecce followed by home and away draws against Verona (1-1) and Milan (0-0). Those scorelines underline a side that controls matches – they outshot Verona 29-7 and Lecce 15-8 – but haven’t always turned dominance into goals. The advanced numbers are very strong: over the last five games they average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, with 2.458 expected goals created and just 0.742 xG allowed, plus 4 clean sheets. This is a team defending at a very high level and generating chances consistently. Fiorentina’s recent form is more fragile. They were thrashed 4-0 at Roma and sandwiched that defeat between two goalless home draws against Sassuolo and Genoa. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last five, but the broader trend is concerning: 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match, with a low attacking output of 0.686 xG for and a high 1.812 xG against. Even when they dominated territory and shots – 22-11 versus Sassuolo, 13-9 against Genoa – they failed to score, pointing to real issues in the final third.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is marginally favoured at 55.0%, suggesting a slight edge towards a more open contest. All three of Juventus’s last games have finished under 2.5, while all three of Fiorentina’s have also gone under, but Juve’s averages of 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, backed by 2.458 xG for, hint at a side capable of turning control into a higher-scoring outing. Fiorentina’s 1.8 goals conceded per game and 1.812 xG against support the idea that if Juventus take their chances, this trend of low scores could finally be broken.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to an expected total of 9.26 corners, which fits the recent data. Juventus have racked up 7, 14 and 3 corners in their last three (24 in total), regularly pinning opponents back – Verona and Lecce managed just 1 corner each. Fiorentina’s last three have produced 7, 5 and 4 corners for them, with opponents getting 4, 4 and 3. Both sides are comfortable spending time in the attacking third, so the predicted corners figure aligns well with their front‑foot approaches.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 25.58 expected shots in this match, the shots prediction reflects two teams who are not shy about pulling the trigger. Juventus have posted 15, 29 and 10 attempts in their last three (54 total), while limiting opponents to 8, 7 and 8. Fiorentina have taken 22, 4 and 13 shots themselves (39 total), but also allowed 11, 14 and 9. Those numbers dovetail with the xG data: Juve’s strong 2.458 xG for and Fiorentina’s 1.812 xG against support an open game in terms of volume of efforts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Juventus wins by X goals. Negative = Fiorentina wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Juventus vs Fiorentina with expected spread of +1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Juventus vs Fiorentina
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction gives an expected spread of +1.09 in favour of Juventus, meaning they are projected to win by just over a goal. Over their last three, Juve have a combined goal difference of +1 (2 scored, 1 conceded), but the underlying dominance in xG and shots suggests they can stretch that margin. Fiorentina’s recent run shows a -4 goal difference (0-4 at Roma plus two 0-0 draws), mirroring their defensive frailty against stronger attacks. That expected spread matches the 76.0% home-win probability and the contrast between Juve’s solid defence and Fiorentina’s inconsistent back line.

Final Prediction

Juventus’ combination of elite defensive numbers, heavy shot volume and vastly superior recent xG tilts this fixture firmly in their favour, especially at home. Fiorentina have shown they can keep the ball and win corners, but their finishing and defensive vulnerability against top sides are major concerns. The key factor to watch will be whether Juventus can convert their expected dominance into goals early; if they do, the match is likely to follow the script of a comfortable home win.

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