Serie A 2025-2026: Juventus vs Genoa Prediction - 6 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Juventus

Home Team
77%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
10%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Juventus D W W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)

Genoa L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

xG (avg) 2.17
xGA (avg) 0.77
Clean Sheets 2

Genoa

xG (avg) 0.99
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are clear favourites at home, with a 77.0% probability of victory against a Genoa side given just a 10.0% chance, and a 13.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction on goals (60.0% probability), suggesting a more open contest than Genoa might want. In the table, Juventus sit 5th on 54 points chasing the Champions League spots, while 13th-placed Genoa are in mid-table on 33 points, still looking over their shoulder at the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Juventus come into this with momentum: two wins and a draw in their last three, including a dominant 4-0 home win over Pisa and a controlled 1-0 success away at Udinese. Even in the 1-1 draw with Sassuolo, they were on the front foot, racking up 18 shots. Across the last five games they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded, underpinned by strong expected numbers: 2.168 xG created and just 0.766 xG allowed per match, plus two clean sheets. That paints the picture of a side largely in control of games at both ends. Genoa’s form is more up and down but not disastrous: two wins and one defeat in their last three. They’ve taken impressive victories over Verona (2-0 away) and Roma (2-1 at home), but the 2-0 home loss to Udinese exposed their limitations in front of goal despite 18 shots and 7 corners. Over their last five, Genoa average only 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG figures of 0.988 for and 1.288 against. They are competitive but less efficient than Juventus, and their attack looks less likely to convert pressure into goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%, and the underlying numbers back a game with chances. Two of Juventus’ last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (4-0 vs Pisa, 1-1 vs Sassuolo), while Genoa have seen only one of their last three go over (the 2-1 win against Roma). However, Juve’s average of 2.0 goals scored with 2.168 xG per game versus Genoa’s more fragile 1.288 xG conceded suggests the home side alone could drive this away from an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.48, pointing to a match with a steady but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Juventus’ last three games have produced 13, 8 and 8 total corners, while Genoa’s have seen 8, 6 and 9, which aligns closely with this corners prediction. With Juve typically on the front foot and Genoa capable of racking up corners even in defeat (7 against Udinese), both teams’ styles suggest around 9–10 predicted corners is realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.69, which fits well with recent patterns. Juventus have attempted 18, 22 and 25 shots in their last three outings, while Genoa have produced 6, 8 and 8, often conceding more than they create. Given Juve’s strong attacking xG and Genoa’s tendency to allow chances, a shots prediction around 25–26 expected shots overall reflects a game where the home side does most of the attacking.

Final Prediction

Juventus’ superior recent form, stronger xG profile at both ends, and home advantage give them a clear edge over a Genoa team that struggles to turn possession into goals. The key factor to watch will be how long Genoa can resist Juve’s pressure; if the hosts score early, the game could easily open up in line with the over 2.5 and high shots expectations.

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