Serie A 2025-2026: Juventus vs Lazio Prediction - 8 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Juventus

Home Team
92%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
3%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 23 18 1 4 52 19 33 55
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 23 14 4 5 33 21 12 46
4 Juventus 23 13 6 4 39 18 21 45
5 Roma 23 14 1 8 27 14 13 43
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 23 9 9 5 30 20 10 36
8 Lazio 23 8 8 7 24 21 3 32
9 Udinese 23 9 5 9 26 34 -8 32
10 Bologna 23 8 6 9 32 30 2 30
11 Sassuolo 23 8 5 10 27 29 -2 29
12 Cagliari 23 7 7 9 28 31 -3 28
13 Torino 23 7 5 11 22 40 -18 26
14 Genoa 23 5 8 10 27 34 -7 23
15 Cremonese 23 5 8 10 20 31 -11 23
16 Parma 23 5 8 10 15 30 -15 23
17 Lecce 23 4 6 13 13 30 -17 18
18 Fiorentina 23 3 8 12 25 36 -11 17
19 Pisa 23 1 11 11 19 40 -21 14
20 Verona 23 2 8 13 18 41 -23 14

Recent Trends

Juventus W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 3 - 0)

Lazio W D L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.78
# Clean Sheets: 3

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.91
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are strong favourites at home, with a 92.0% predicted chance of winning against Lazio, who sit 8th, while Juve are 4th and pushing hard for the Champions League spots. The model also leans towards an open game, with a 55.0% probability of over 2.5 goals. A goal for both sides is considered slightly more likely than not, at 53.0%.

Match Analysis

Juventus come into this clash in convincing form overall: two wins from their last three, including a dominant 4–1 victory away to Parma and a 3–0 home win over Napoli. The slip-up was the 1–0 defeat at Cagliari, but the wider trend is positive. Across their last five games, Juve average 2.6 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, backed up by identical expected goals in attack (2.6) and only 0.776 expected goals conceded, plus three clean sheets. This points to a side creating plenty and controlling matches defensively. Lazio’s recent run is more mixed: a 3–2 home win over Genoa shows they can still edge tight contests, but it’s sandwiched between a 0–0 away at Lecce and a heavy 3–0 home defeat to Como. Over their last five, they average only 0.6 goals scored per game, with 0.4 conceded. Their expected goals tell a similar story: 0.976 created and 0.91 allowed, with two clean sheets. Lazio remain organised at the back, but their lack of cutting edge in front of goal is a concern against an in-form Juventus attack.

Final Prediction

Juventus’ superior recent scoring rate, defensive solidity, and strong underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a Lazio side struggling to convert chances. The key factor to watch will be whether Lazio’s defence can withstand the sustained pressure from a Juve attack that has been both prolific and efficient in recent weeks.

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