Serie A 2025-2026: Juventus vs Sassuolo Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Juventus

Home Team
77%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 27.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Juventus W W D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 3)

Sassuolo L L W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.82
# Clean Sheets: 2

Sassuolo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.46
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are clear favourites at home, with a 77.0% probability of victory against a Sassuolo side given just an 11.0% chance, and a draw at 13.0%. Fifth in Serie A on 53 points, Juve are chasing the top four, while 10th‑placed Sassuolo sit on 38 points and look more mid‑table than European. The model leans towards a home win combined with an over 2.5 goals prediction, with a 56.0% probability of at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Juventus come into this on a strong run: a 1-0 away win at Udinese, a 4-0 home demolition of Pisa, and a wild 3-3 draw away to Roma. That sequence shows both sides of this Juve: solid enough to grind out a clean sheet on the road, but also capable of blowing teams away when their attack clicks. Over the last five games they are averaging 2.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by an impressive 2.364 expected goals for and just 0.818 expected against – numbers that underline a side in control of both boxes. Sassuolo’s form is far more erratic. They’ve lost narrowly to Bologna (0-1 at home) and Lazio (1-2 away), either side of an opportunistic 2-1 home win over Atalanta in a game where they were heavily outshot (7-26) and out-cornered (3-9). Their recent averages – 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, with xG of 1.176 for and 1.464 against – paint the picture of a team that tends to be second best in chances created and chances allowed. Up against a Juventus side with much stronger underlying numbers, the gap in quality and consistency is evident.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model tilts towards an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0%, and the recent scorelines support that lean. Two of Juventus’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (4-0 vs Pisa, 3-3 vs Roma), while one stayed under (1-0 at Udinese). Sassuolo have seen two of their last three also go over 2.5 (2-1 vs Atalanta, 2-1 loss to Lazio), with only the 1-0 defeat to Bologna finishing under 2.5. With Juve’s attack averaging 2.8 goals and Sassuolo conceding 1.4 on recent form, and both teams’ xG profiles pointing to chances at both ends, a goal-filled contest feels more likely than a cagey one.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively standard game, with an expected total of 9.53 corners. Juventus have seen 8, 8 and 5 corners respectively in their last three matches (6-2 at Udinese, 4-4 vs Pisa, 1-4 at Roma), suggesting they don’t always rely on wide bombardment to create chances. Sassuolo’s recent corner counts – 7-4 vs Bologna, 6-1 at Lazio, 3-9 vs Atalanta – show that their opponents often rack up plenty of set-piece situations, especially when Sassuolo are pushed back. Put together, it supports predicted corners around the 9–10 mark, with Juve’s territorial control and Sassuolo’s reactive style combining for a steady but not extreme corner total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this match is 27.89, and both sides’ recent numbers back up that shots prediction. Juventus have attempted 22, 25 and 13 shots in their last three games, consistently outshooting opponents and matching their strong xG profile. Sassuolo, by contrast, have taken only 9, 7 and 7 shots, while allowing 16, 13 and a massive 26 – a pattern of conceding volume against stronger sides. Given Juve’s attacking momentum and Sassuolo’s tendency to give up attempts, it is reasonable to expect the home side to contribute the bulk of those expected shots.

Final Prediction

Juventus have the edge thanks to superior recent form, sharper attacking numbers, and much stronger underlying statistics at both ends of the pitch. Sassuolo’s openness and their habit of conceding plenty of shots and chances make an upset unlikely over 90 minutes in Turin. The key factor to watch will be how early Juve can turn their pressure into a breakthrough; if they score first, the match could quickly tilt towards the kind of high-scoring home win the data is pointing to.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel