Serie A 2025-2026: Lazio vs Inter Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lazio

Home Team
22%
VS

Inter

Away Team
59%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.7
Expected Shots: 23.3
Expected Spread: -0.7

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Lazio W D W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)

Inter W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 5 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.32
xGA (avg) 1.22
Clean Sheets 1

Inter

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 1.70
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Inter arrive as strong favourites, with a 59.0% chance of victory against Lazio’s 22.0%, and the model pointing firmly towards an away win. The game is also tilted towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% for under), suggesting a tight, controlled contest rather than a shoot-out. Inter sit top of Serie A on 82 points, while Lazio are eighth on 51 and chasing a late European push.

Match Analysis

Lazio’s form over the last three matches has been quietly encouraging: a 2-1 win away at Cremonese, a 3-3 home draw with Udinese, and an impressive 2-0 victory at Napoli. That run shows improved resilience on the road but also a tendency to open games up, especially at home, where defensive control can slip. Over their last five matches, Lazio are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed by xG figures of 1.322 for and 1.22 against, and just one clean sheet – solid but not spectacular numbers. Inter, meanwhile, look every inch a league leader. A 2-0 home win over Parma and a 3-0 home win over Cagliari were separated by a 2-2 draw at Torino, underlining their attacking consistency. They average 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last five, with xG of 1.528 for and 1.702 against – an indication that they do allow chances but tend to outscore problems. Two clean sheets in that span hint at a side that can close games down when needed, which fits with the away-win prediction.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 48.0% edge, even if both sides have produced some lively scorelines recently. Two of Lazio’s last three have gone over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Udinese, 2-1 vs Cremonese), with only the 2-0 win at Napoli landing under. Inter have split their last three: over 2.5 in the 3-0 win over Cagliari and the 2-2 draw at Torino, under 2.5 in the 2-0 victory over Parma. Given Lazio’s 1.4 scored/1.4 conceded and Inter’s 1.8 scored/1.4 conceded, plus relatively modest xG at both ends, a cautious under 2.5 prediction is justified despite those recent outliers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Inter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 8.74, pointing to a fairly average count for Serie A. Lazio’s recent games produced 6 corners at Cremonese (3-3), 9 against Udinese (4-5) and a wild 12 against Napoli (0-12), suggesting they often concede territory and allow opponents to rack up corners. Inter’s last three have seen 11 corners vs Parma (8-3), 10 at Torino (5-5) and 13 vs Cagliari (4-9), numbers consistent with a front-foot side that also faces counters. Put together, the corners prediction around nine fits two teams who attack but aren’t relentlessly direct from wide areas every week.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The total expected shots are 23.33, indicating a game with regular but not constant goalmouth action. Lazio’s last three show 8, 13 and 14 shots taken, while allowing 13, 16 and 12 – they’re not shot-hungry but do participate in open exchanges. Inter’s recent sequence (12 vs Parma, 14 at Torino, 18 vs Cagliari) supports a shots prediction in the low-20s, aligned with their xG profile of 1.528 for and 1.702 against: they create enough to score, but without turning every game into a barrage.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lazio wins by X goals. Negative = Inter wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lazio vs Inter with expected spread of -0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lazio vs Inter
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected spread is -0.65 (home minus away), a goal spread prediction that clearly favours Inter by roughly two-thirds of a goal. Over the last three, Lazio are +3 on goal difference (2-1, 3-3, 2-0), while Inter are +5 (2-0, 2-2, 3-0), underlining the visitors’ slightly stronger recent scoring and defensive balance. With Inter top of the table and carrying a 59.0% win probability, the expected spread mirrors their superior attack and greater ability to manage tight margins.

Final Prediction

Inter’s edge comes from their more reliable scoring power and superior league position, combined with a defence that, while permissive at times, still delivers clean sheets more often than Lazio. The hosts have enough form to make this competitive, especially at home, but the data points to Inter’s extra quality telling over 90 minutes. A key factor to watch will be how often Inter’s forward line can turn their slight xG advantage into clear chances against a Lazio back line that has struggled to keep games fully under control.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel