Serie A 2025-2026: Lazio vs Milan Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lazio

Home Team
16%
VS

Milan

Away Team
68%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 24.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Lazio W L D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 2)

Milan W W L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.86
xGA (avg) 1.58
Clean Sheets 1

Milan

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Milan travel to Rome as clear favourites, with a 68.0% probability of taking all three points against a Lazio side given just a 16.0% chance of victory (draw also at 16.0%). The model leans towards an away win in a tight encounter, with an *under 2.5* goals prediction (44.0% chance of over 2.5). In the table, Milan are firmly in the title race in 2nd place on 60 points, while 10th-placed Lazio sit on 37 points and are drifting away from the European spots.

Match Analysis

Lazio’s last three matches underline their inconsistency. A solid 2–1 home win over Sassuolo showed they can still hurt teams at the Olimpico, but that was followed by a flat 0–2 loss away to Torino and a goalless draw at Cagliari. Across the last five games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with just one clean sheet – numbers that reflect a side too easy to play through despite decent underlying figures (1.856 xG for, 1.58 xG against). Milan, by contrast, arrive with the swagger of genuine contenders. They’ve beaten rivals Inter 1–0, handled business 2–0 away to Cremonese, and only a wasteful display in a 0–1 home defeat to Parma – where they still racked up 25 shots – blemishes their recent run. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, backed by strong attacking output (2.274 xG per game) and relatively controlled defending (1.294 xG conceded). That balance at both ends is a key reason the probabilities tilt heavily towards an away win.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points towards an *under 2.5* outcome, despite only a 44.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a controlled, tactical contest rather than a shootout. Recent trends back a cautious over 2.5 prediction: only 1 of Lazio’s last 3 games went over 2.5 goals (the 2–1 vs Sassuolo), and none of Milan’s last 3 have gone over, all finishing with 2 goals or fewer. With Lazio averaging 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded and Milan at 2.2 scored and 0.6 conceded – supported by xG that points to chances but also defensive organisation – a tight Milan win with under 2.5 feels the likeliest script.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Milan
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 8.94, pointing to a moderate corners prediction rather than an end-to-end siege. Lazio’s last three matches produced 7, 15 and 9 total corners, showing they can be involved in higher counts when chasing games. Milan’s recent totals (7, 13 and 6 corners) also sit in that mid-range, reflecting sides that build attacks but don’t rely solely on constant wing bombardment. With Milan likely to control territory and Lazio looking to break selectively, around 9 predicted corners fits their generally balanced, structured styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Milan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game is 24.07, suggesting a match with a fair amount of goalmouth action without becoming chaotic. Lazio’s last three outings saw combined shot totals of 20, 25 and 21, while Milan’s produced 20, 35 and 34, driven in part by Milan’s willingness to keep shooting when on top. This shots prediction aligns with the xG profile: Milan’s 2.274 xG per game comes from sustained attacking output, while Lazio’s 1.856 xG indicates they will also create, even if less frequently.

Final Prediction

Milan’s superior form, more reliable attack and far tighter recent defensive record give them a clear edge over a Lazio side that has struggled for consistency. The visitors’ ability to turn sustained pressure into goals while limiting chances at the other end is the central theme behind the away-win prediction. A key factor to watch will be whether Lazio’s attack can convert their decent xG into actual goals against one of the league’s most efficient defences.

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