Serie A 2025-2026: Lazio vs Parma Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lazio

Home Team
62%
VS

Parma

Away Team
19%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 8.5
Expected Shots: 24.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Lazio W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)

Parma L L D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.42
xGA (avg) 1.51
Clean Sheets 3

Parma

xG (avg) 0.73
xGA (avg) 2.30
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are clear favourites at home, with a 62.0% probability of victory against a Parma side given just a 19.0% chance, and the draw also at 19.0%. The model points to a home win and an *under 2.5* goals prediction (42.0% chance of over 2.5, so the edge is on the low‑scoring side), reflecting Lazio’s recent solidity. In the table, Lazio sit 8th on 43 points and still have an outside shot at European spots, while 12th‑placed Parma are looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Lazio come into this on a run of three straight wins: 2-0 away at Bologna, 1-0 at home to Milan and 2-1 at home to Sassuolo. The scorelines underline a team that has tightened up defensively – just one goal conceded across those matches – while doing enough in attack to edge tight contests. Over the last five games they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, but the recent three‑match burst, plus three clean sheets in their last five, suggests an improving balance between defence and attack. Parma’s form is far more fragile: back‑to‑back defeats (0-2 at home to Cremonese, 1-4 away to Torino) followed by a goalless draw at Fiorentina. They’ve struggled badly in front of goal, averaging only 0.6 goals scored in their last five games, and the defensive problems are laid bare by 1.6 goals conceded on average and a hefty 2.3 expected goals conceded per match in that stretch. Their own attacking xG sits at just 0.73 per game, underlining how few real chances they are fashioning.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards *under 2.5* goals, and the over 2.5 prediction is relatively weak at 42.0%, so a tight, low‑scoring contest is more likely. Two of Lazio’s last three games finished under 2.5 goals (2-0 vs Bologna, 1-0 vs Milan), with only the 2-1 against Sassuolo edging over, and their average xG for (1.422) and against (1.508) suggests matches often hover around one goal either way. Parma’s last three produced two unders (0-2 vs Cremonese, 0-0 vs Fiorentina) and one clear over (1-4 at Torino), and with just 0.6 goals scored per game and low attacking xG, they look unlikely to turn this into a goal fest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Parma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively modest total, with 8.46 predicted corners overall. Lazio’s recent games have been surprisingly low in this department – corner counts of 3, 10 and 7 in total across the last three – hinting at a side that doesn’t rely heavily on sustained wide pressure. Parma, despite some higher individual tallies (3, 7 and 1 corners won), have also been involved in matches that don’t explode in terms of set‑piece volume, which fits the projection of a controlled, rather than frantic, game in wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 24.39 total attempts, in line with a match where Lazio are on the front foot but not relentlessly gunning forward. Lazio’s last three have seen combined shot totals of 24, 24 and 20, closely mirroring this shots prediction and matching their xG profile of creating a steady but not overwhelming stream of chances. Parma’s recent games have ranged between 15 and 21 total shots, and with their weak attacking xG, much of the shot volume here is likely to come from the home side rather than a genuine end‑to‑end battle.

Final Prediction

Lazio’s home advantage, superior league position and far better recent results give them a clear edge over a Parma team struggling to create and conceding too many quality chances. The key factor to watch will be whether Parma can withstand Lazio’s controlled pressure without collapsing defensively; if they can’t, even in a low‑scoring, under 2.5 encounter, the points should stay in Rome.

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