Serie A 2025-2026: Lazio vs Pisa Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lazio

Home Team
64%
VS

Pisa

Away Team
18%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Lazio L L W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 0)

Pisa L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.11
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 1

Pisa

xG (avg) 0.65
xGA (avg) 1.80
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are clear favourites at the Olimpico, with a 64.0% chance of victory against bottom‑placed Pisa, who have just 18.0% probability of an upset and the same 18.0% likelihood of a draw. Ninth in Serie A with 51 points, Lazio are expected to do the job against 20th‑placed Pisa on 18 points, and the model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction, with a 44.0% chance of the game going over that line.

Match Analysis

Lazio come into this on a mixed run: a morale‑boosting 2-1 away win at Cremonese was followed by back‑to‑back defeats, 0-3 at home to Inter and 0-2 away to Roma. Those three matches underline their inconsistency – only one win, but also two games where their attack failed to score at all. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with expected goals at 1.114 for and 1.292 against, suggesting they are creating enough but not blowing sides away. Pisa’s form is far more alarming. They’ve lost all of their last three: 1-2 at home to Lecce, then successive 0-3 defeats against Cremonese (away) and Napoli (home). The trend is stark – in their last five, they average 0.0 goals scored and 3.2 conceded, with only 0.65 expected goals for and 1.804 against. Even when they produced 17 shots against Lecce, it translated into just a single goal and another defeat. With Pisa already 20th, this looks like damage limitation rather than a genuine contest of equals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 as the most likely outcome, with only a 44.0% probability of the game going over. All of Lazio’s last three matches have finished with exactly three goals, so 3/3 would count as over 2.5, but their modest averages – 1.4 scored, 1.6 conceded, xG of 1.114 for and 1.292 against – suggest a controlled rather than wild affair. Pisa’s appalling recent record of 0.0 goals scored and 3.2 conceded, combined with just 0.65 xG created, backs an under 2.5 call despite their defence leaking heavily, because their attack simply doesn’t carry consistent threat.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.04 total, which fits well with recent numbers. Lazio’s last three outings have produced 8, 6 and 6 total corners respectively, while Pisa’s matches have seen 7, 8 and 7. These figures point towards a match with steady but not frantic wing play: Lazio looking to probe from wide areas at home, Pisa largely resisting and clearing, which should keep the predicted corners close to the 9 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.11, which is consistent with both teams’ recent patterns. Lazio’s last three have featured combined shot counts of 22, 23 and 21, while Pisa’s have come in at 24, 10 and 11. Given Lazio’s higher xG (1.114) compared with Pisa’s 0.65, the shots prediction suggests Lazio will account for the bulk of those 24.11 expected shots, forcing Pisa to defend deep for long spells.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lazio wins by X goals. Negative = Pisa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lazio vs Pisa with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lazio vs Pisa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is +0.94 in Lazio’s favour, meaning the home side are expected to win by roughly one goal. Over their last three games, Lazio have a goal difference of -2 (2 scored, 4 conceded), but that includes tough fixtures against Inter and Roma; Pisa, by contrast, are -7 over the same span with 1 scored and 8 conceded. With a 64.0% home‑win probability and Pisa shipping 3.2 goals per game recently, the expected spread of almost a goal reflects Lazio’s stronger attack and Pisa’s fragile defence.

Final Prediction

Lazio’s superior league position, more balanced underlying numbers and Pisa’s collapse in both results and xG give the home side a clear edge. The key factor to watch is whether Pisa can withstand Lazio’s steady pressure in shots and territorial dominance; if they crack early, the scoreline could end up more comfortable than the conservative spread implies.

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