Serie A 2025-2026: Lazio vs Udinese Prediction - 27 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lazio

Home Team
57%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
22%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Lazio W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)

Udinese L W D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.38
xGA (avg) 1.12
Clean Sheets 3

Udinese

xG (avg) 0.95
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are favoured to take all three points at the Olimpico, with a 57.0% probability of a home win against Udinese’s 22.0% chance and a 21.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (43.0% chance of over 2.5, so a lean to the “under”) and even a 50.0% chance of no goals at all. In the table, Lazio sit 9th on 47 points, while Udinese are 11th on 43, both still jostling for position in the congested mid-table.

Match Analysis

Lazio arrive from a mixed but steady run: a 2-0 statement win at Napoli, a narrow 0-1 defeat at Fiorentina, and a 1-1 home draw with Parma. That sequence underlines a side that is hard to break down more than it is explosive going forward – only three goals scored in those three matches, but just two conceded and clean sheets in Naples and against Napoli most notably. Their recent averages back that up: 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over the last five, with xG figures of 1.382 for and 1.124 against suggesting performances broadly in line with the scorelines. Udinese’s last three tell a similar story of defensive resilience with sporadic attacking bursts: a 0-1 home loss to Parma despite territorial dominance, an impressive 3-0 win away at Milan, and a 0-0 stalemate at home to Como. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last five, conceding just 1.0 goal per game on average. Interestingly, their 1.6 goals scored per match over that period is higher than their attacking xG (0.946), while they allow 1.714 xG against – a hint that they may have overperformed at both ends and are living a bit on the edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5, and that under 2.5 prediction is well supported by recent scorelines. Two of Lazio’s last three games finished under 2.5 goals (2-0, 0-1, 1-1), and all three of Udinese’s recent matches have stayed under (0-1, 3-0, 0-0 – only one hitting exactly three). Lazio’s averages of 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus Udinese’s 1.6 for and 1.0 against, combined with relatively modest xG numbers on both sides, point more towards a controlled, cagey encounter than a high-scoring shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sits at 9.14 total corners, suggesting a typical Serie A contest rather than a bombardment. Lazio’s recent corner counts have been volatile – 0 at Napoli, then 6 at Fiorentina and 7 at home to Parma – while Udinese have racked up 10, 3 and 6 in their last three. Both sides can force set-piece situations when they push on, but neither is relentlessly direct; the predicted corners figure fits with two teams that build attacks patiently rather than piling in cross after cross.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.48 expected shots, the shots prediction is for a match with a reasonable amount of goalmouth action but not constant chaos. Lazio’s last three have produced 14, 13 and 7 shots for, while Udinese have managed 16, 12 and 14 – enough to suggest both sides will test each other, but not at a frenetic tempo. Those shot volumes align with the xG profiles: plenty of efforts, but not all of them high-quality, again pushing the balance towards a relatively low-scoring outcome despite a healthy number of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lazio wins by X goals. Negative = Udinese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lazio vs Udinese with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lazio vs Udinese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction gives an expected spread of +0.69 in Lazio’s favour, meaning the home side are projected to win by roughly one goal. Over their last three, Lazio have a goal difference of +1 (3 scored, 2 conceded), while Udinese also sit at +2 (3 scored, 1 conceded) but with more volatile underlying numbers. Marrying that with the 57.0% home-win probability and Lazio’s slightly better defensive xG against, the expected spread of just under a goal reflects a narrow but clear edge for the hosts.

Final Prediction

Lazio’s combination of home advantage, slightly stronger underlying defensive numbers and their position just ahead of Udinese in the table gives them the marginal edge. Udinese’s recent clean sheets and ability to spring a surprise, as they did at Milan, mean this should still be competitive. The key factor to watch will be which side controls territory and set pieces – if Lazio pin Udinese back and rack up corners and shots, their superior probabilities should translate into a tight but decisive home win.

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