Serie A 2025-2026: Lecce vs Atalanta Prediction - 6 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lecce

Home Team
20%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
61%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Lecce L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)

Atalanta W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

xG (avg) 1.11
xGA (avg) 1.30
Clean Sheets 0

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.80
xGA (avg) 2.60
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are clear favourites here, with a 61.0% probability of taking all three points away to Lecce, who are fighting for survival near the bottom in 18th place, while La Dea chase Europe from 7th. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (43.0% chance of over 2.5, so a stronger tilt to a low‑scoring affair). Both teams are under pressure for points, but Atalanta’s greater quality and league position give them a decisive edge.

Match Analysis

Lecce come into this in classic relegation-battle form: combative but inconsistent. They’ve lost narrowly at Roma (0–1) and Napoli (1–2), either side of a vital 2–1 home win over Cremonese. Those three matches show some resilience – they were competitive in all of them – but also underline their problems in both boxes: just 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their recent averages back that up: 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game over the last five, with no clean sheets, and xG figures (1.106 for, 1.302 against) that suggest they’re slightly second best most weeks. Atalanta’s recent run has been steadier, even if not spectacular. A 1–0 home win over Verona was sandwiched between a 1–1 draw at leaders Inter and a 2–2 home draw with Udinese – three matches unbeaten, with 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their advanced numbers are interesting: they also average 1.0 goal scored over the last five games, but create far more than they finish (1.8 xG per match), while conceding 0.8 goals from a hefty 2.598 xG allowed. That hints at a team whose games can be open and chance‑filled, but where both wasteful finishing and last‑ditch defending keep scorelines tighter than the balance of play.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5, with the probability of over 2.5 goals at only 43.0%, so a low‑scoring outcome is slightly more likely. Lecce’s last three matches show 2 out of 3 going over 2.5 (2–1 vs Cremonese, 1–2 vs Napoli) and one under (0–1 at Roma), but their five‑game averages of 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus modest xG for and against, point towards tight margins. Atalanta’s last three have produced two under 2.5 results (1–0 vs Verona, 1–1 at Inter) and one over (2–2 vs Udinese), and with 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded on average, the data backs an under 2.5 prediction despite their higher underlying xG numbers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.63, which fits a game where Atalanta have more of the ball but Lecce still pose a threat from wide areas. Lecce’s last three matches produced corner counts of 2–10, 7–7 and 4–4, showing they can be pinned back by stronger sides but also generate a fair share at home. Atalanta’s recent 2–4, 3–2 and 11–3 corner lines hint at a team that can rack up deliveries when they camp in the opposition half, so a corners prediction around 9–10 overall suits a match with Atalanta pressing and Lecce breaking when they can.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 24.22 suggests a reasonably lively contest in terms of attempts, even if the scoresheet may not explode. Lecce’s last three games produced combined shot totals of 22, 24 and 19, while Atalanta’s yielded 23, 24 and a big 30, so a shots prediction in the mid‑20s is consistent with recent patterns. Given Atalanta’s 1.8 xG per game over their last five, they should generate the bulk of those efforts, with Lecce relying on fewer, more selective chances.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s stronger league position, better overall xG profile and three‑match unbeaten run explain why they are favoured to edge this encounter. Lecce’s need for points and decent home spirit will keep it competitive, but their lack of clean sheets is a major concern. The key factor to watch will be whether Atalanta’s superior chance creation finally aligns with clinical finishing – if it does, Lecce may struggle to keep this in their preferred low‑margin territory.

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