Serie A 2025-2026: Lecce vs Cremonese Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Lecce

Home Team
70%
VS

Cremonese

Away Team
15%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Lecce L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)

Cremonese L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.52
# Clean Sheets: 1

Cremonese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.50
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lecce are favoured to take all three points here, with a home win given a strong 70.0% probability against just 15.0% for Cremonese and 16.0% for the draw. In a direct relegation scrap between 18th-placed Lecce and 17th-placed Cremonese (both on 24 points), the model also leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% implied by the 46.0% chance of over 2.5. A low-scoring home victory is the baseline expectation.

Match Analysis

Lecce come into this with a mixed but slightly improving recent run: a 2-0 away win at Cagliari was followed by a 0-2 home defeat to Inter and a 1-3 loss at Como. The pattern is familiar: they rarely score more than once (only three goals across those three games) but, crucially, have shown they can keep things compact, as in the clean sheet in Sardinia. The advanced metrics back up the picture of a limited but organised side – just 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average over the last five, with xG for at 0.872 and xG against at 1.522, suggesting they’re not creating much but also not being completely overrun. Cremonese arrive in even worse attacking shape. They haven’t scored in any of their last three outings – 0-2 vs Milan, 0-3 at Roma and 0-0 at home to Genoa – and have managed just 0.2 goals per game across the last five. Defensively, they’ve been porous against stronger opposition, shipping 2.4 goals per match over that stretch, with an xG against of 2.504 hinting that those defensive issues are no accident. Their xG for of 0.78 also shows a toothless attack that struggles to turn possession and territory into real chances, which is a major concern going into a high-pressure away game.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction, with “over” given only a 46.0% chance. Two of Lecce’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (2-0 at Cagliari, 0-2 vs Inter), with only the 1-3 defeat at Como going over. All three of Cremonese’s recent games have been under 2.5, with just two goals total scored by them in their last five and xG for at only 0.78 per match. Combined with Lecce’s modest 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, the numbers strongly point to a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a goal fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.97 expected shots, the shots prediction points to a match with a decent amount of attempts but not necessarily high-quality chances. Lecce’s attack has been quiet – 5 and 3 shots in their defeats to Como and Inter – but they did fire 13 times in the win at Cagliari, showing they can generate volume against comparable opposition. Cremonese have racked up 15 and 19 shots at home to Milan and Genoa, yet managed only 2 at Roma, mirroring their modest xG of 0.78. Those figures align with the expected shots total: plenty of efforts, but not enough clear chances to make a high-scoring game likely.

Final Prediction

Lecce’s home advantage, slightly sturdier defence, and Cremonese’s prolonged scoring drought combine to give the hosts a clear edge in this relegation six-pointer. The key factor to watch will be which side can turn limited attacking output into a decisive moment; with both teams struggling for goals, one set piece or half-chance could define the afternoon.

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