Serie A 2025-2026: Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction - 20 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lecce

Home Team
30%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
46%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Lecce L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)

Fiorentina W W D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

xG (avg) 1.01
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 0

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 1.54
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are slight but clear favourites here, with a 46.0% chance of taking all three points away at Lecce, who are given a 30.0% shot at a home win and sit 18th in the table, level on 27 points with 17th-placed Cremonese. The model points towards a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% and even a 50.0% chance that at least one side fails to score. With Fiorentina currently 15th on 35 points, this is as much about survival for Lecce as about climbing into mid‑table safety for the Viola.

Match Analysis

Lecce come into this on a brutal run: three straight defeats, all without scoring – 0-2 at Bologna, 0-3 at home to Atalanta and 0-1 at Roma. The pattern is clear: they’re struggling badly in the final third, while their defence has been overworked. Across the last five matches they’ve averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, and tellingly, they’ve had zero clean sheets in that span. The xG numbers (1.01 for, 1.574 against) suggest they are creating a bit more than the raw goals show, but they’re not turning chances into goals and remain vulnerable at the back. Fiorentina, by contrast, have quietly steadied themselves. They’ve taken seven points from their last three outings: 1-0 at home to Lazio, 1-0 away to Verona and a 1-1 draw against Inter. The scorelines have been narrow, but in the last five they’re averaging 1.6 goals for and 1.4 against, with three clean sheets hinting at improved defensive organisation. Their xG profile (1.03 created, 1.542 conceded) isn’t dominant, but they’re finishing slightly above expectation and have tightened up enough to grind out results, which could be decisive against a goal‑shy Lecce.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 54.0% probability, and the recent form strongly backs that under 2.5 call. All three of Lecce’s last matches ended under 2.5 goals (totals of 2, 3 and 1), and none featured a Lecce goal. Fiorentina’s last three also all stayed under: 1-0, 1-0, 1-1. With Lecce averaging 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Fiorentina on 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, plus xG around 1.0 for each side, an over 2.5 prediction feels less likely than another tight, tactical affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.22, pointing to a moderate corners prediction rather than an extreme. Lecce’s last three games saw combined corner counts of 14, 7 and 12, often with the opposition on the front foot (they were out‑cornered 8-6 by Bologna and 10-2 by Roma). Fiorentina’s last three totals were 11, 10 and 8, again fairly balanced. With Fiorentina likely to have more of the ball but neither team playing with wild attacking abandon, a figure close to the predicted corners mark around nine or ten looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.91, suggesting a game with a decent but not explosive number of attempts. Lecce’s last three produced 6, 11 and 8 shots for them, while they allowed 12, 16 and 14 – often spending long spells without the ball. Fiorentina, meanwhile, took 8, 5 and 16 shots against Lazio, Verona and Inter respectively, conceding 13, 21 and 12. Those patterns, alongside xG figures just above 1.0 for both sides, support a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, with Fiorentina likely edging the expected shots count.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s recent solidity and superior form give them the edge against a Lecce side short on confidence and goals, which is reflected in their 46.0% win probability. Lecce’s survival fight and home crowd energy could keep it close, but unless their attack finally clicks, the visitors’ greater cutting edge and improved defending should tell. A key factor to watch will be whether Lecce can turn their modest xG into an early goal; if not, Fiorentina’s patience and control are likely to decide it.

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