Serie A 2025-2026: Lecce vs Genoa Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lecce

Home Team
42%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
31%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 23.2
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Lecce W L W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)

Genoa L D D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 1.89
Clean Sheets 1

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.04
xGA (avg) 1.26
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lecce are narrowly favoured at home, with a 42.0% chance of victory against Genoa’s 31.0%, and a predicted home win in what looks like a tight, low-scoring contest. The model leans towards under 2.5 goals (48.0% probability) and expects both teams to score at least once (52.0% “goal” probability). In the table, Genoa sit 14th on 41 points, with Lecce just behind them in 17th on 35 points and still right on the edge of the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Lecce arrive from an emotional swing of results: away wins at Pisa (2-1) and Sassuolo (3-2) have been punctuated by a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Juventus. Those last three matches have been more open than their season norms, but the broader trend remains modest attacking output – just 0.6 goals scored on average across the last five games and only 0.936 expected goals created per match in that span. Defensively they are still fragile, conceding 1.6 goals and 1.894 xG on average in their last five, with just one clean sheet. Genoa, by contrast, have tightened up. They’re unbeaten in their last two, with goalless draws away to Fiorentina and Atalanta, before a narrow 2-1 home defeat to Milan. The numbers back up a compact, organised side: 0.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded on average in their last five, with 1.036 xG for and 1.264 xG against – and two clean sheets in that run. Lecce’s urgency, fuelled by their 17th-place position and relegation risk, will clash with Genoa’s more controlled game.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
The over/under 2.5 prediction leans towards under 2.5 goals, at 48.0% probability. Two of Lecce’s last three have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Sassuolo, 2-1 vs Pisa), but their five‑game averages of 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, underpinned by sub‑1.0 xG for per match, suggest they rarely sustain high‑scoring patterns. Genoa’s last three outings produced totals of 3, 0 and 0 goals, so 2 of 3 were under; their balanced xG profile and defensive solidity reinforce the under 2.5 call despite the slight tilt towards both teams scoring.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.6 total corners, in line with the model’s expected total. Lecce’s recent games have produced 10, 8 and 7 corners respectively, while Genoa’s have seen 8, 7 and 8 – all roughly in that 7–10 range. With neither side an all‑out attacking machine but both capable of spells of pressure, the predicted corners figure fits two fairly cautious teams that still use the flanks enough to rack up set‑pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.21 expected shots in total, reflecting a match with chances but not a shooting gallery. Lecce’s last three matches have seen them take 11, 8 and 7 shots while facing 15, 15 and 17, whereas Genoa have attempted 11, 9 and 7 and conceded 8, 13 and 21. Those volumes, tied to xG figures just over 1.0 for both sides recently, support an expected shots tally in the low‑20s rather than a barrage.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lecce wins by X goals. Negative = Genoa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lecce vs Genoa with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lecce vs Genoa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction gives Lecce a wafer‑thin edge, with an expected spread of +0.07 in favour of the home side. Across their last three matches, Lecce’s goal difference is +1 (5 scored, 4 conceded), while Genoa’s is -1 (1 scored, 2 conceded), reinforcing the idea of a marginal home advantage. That tiny expected spread matches the win probabilities and the contrast between Lecce’s greater need and Genoa’s slightly stronger defensive base.

Final Prediction

Lecce’s edge stems mainly from home advantage and the urgency of their position just above the drop, combined with Genoa’s recent difficulty turning solidity into wins. The key factor to watch will be whether Lecce can break down Genoa’s disciplined defence early; if not, the visitors’ organisation could drag the game towards the low‑scoring stalemate the numbers hint at.

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