Serie A 2025-2026: Lecce vs Inter Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Lecce

Home Team
1%
VS

Inter

Away Team
97%
Draw: 2%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 24.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Lecce W W L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)

Inter W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 6 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.46
# Clean Sheets: 2

Inter

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.56
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are overwhelming favourites here, with a 97.0% probability of an away win against a Lecce side given just 1.0% to take all three points (draw: 2.0%). The model points to Inter, current Serie A leaders in 1st place with 61 points, extending their advantage against 17th‑placed Lecce, who are only three points above the relegation zone. The over 2.5 prediction leans marginally towards goals, with a 51.0% chance that the game produces at least three.

Match Analysis

Lecce arrive from an encouraging mini‑revival: back‑to‑back wins over Udinese (2-1) and Cagliari (2-0) before a narrow 1-0 loss away to Torino. Those results show improved resilience, with two clean sheets in their last five and signs of attacking life, but their broader form is still modest: they average just 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over the last five games, with xG numbers (1.08 created, 1.46 allowed per match) suggesting they are often second‑best in chance quality. Inter, by contrast, look like a machine. They come into this fixture on a three‑game winning streak: a 3-2 thriller over Juventus followed by dominant away victories at Sassuolo (5-0) and Cremonese (2-0). Across the last five matches they average 2.2 goals scored and remarkably 0.0 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers: 2.364 xG for and only 0.558 xG against per game, plus three clean sheets. That combination of firepower and defensive control explains both their top‑spot position and the massive edge in the win probabilities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction is slightly in favour of goals, at 51.0% for over 2.5. Two of Lecce’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Udinese, 2-0 vs Cagliari, 0-1 vs Torino), while Inter’s recent trio produced two high‑scoring games (3-2 vs Juventus, 5-0 vs Sassuolo) and one under (2-0 vs Cremonese). With Inter averaging 2.2 scored and Lecce conceding 1.6 per match, plus strong xG for Inter, there is enough attacking threat to lean just towards over rather than under 2.5.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match stands at 24.37 total attempts. Lecce’s last three outings saw combined shot counts of 24, 22 and 31, while Inter’s produced 32, 30 and 24, so this shots prediction sits slightly below some of their recent totals but still reflects a game with regular attempts on goal. Given Inter’s strong xG figures and consistent shot volume (23 vs Sassuolo, 21 vs Juventus), they should account for the bulk of the expected shots.

Final Prediction

Inter’s superior league position, red‑hot recent form, and dominant xG profile give them a clear edge over a Lecce side still fighting to stay clear of the drop. Lecce’s recent improvement means they might be competitive for spells, but sustaining that against the best attack and one of the meanest defences in the league is a huge ask. A key factor to watch will be whether Lecce can limit early pressure; if Inter score first, the leaders are well‑placed to control the game and turn territory into goals and chances.

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