Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Cagliari Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Milan

Home Team
70%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.0
Expected Spread: +1.1

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Milan W L L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)

Cagliari W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

xG (avg) 1.36
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 2

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.08
xGA (avg) 1.56
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are strong favourites at San Siro, with a 70.0% probability of victory against 16th‑placed Cagliari, who are given just a 14.0% chance. The model points towards a home win and a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% for over 2.5, so a slight lean to the low‑scoring side) and even a “no goal” scenario at 50.0% probability. Milan sit 3rd in Serie A on 70 points, chasing Champions League security, while Cagliari (40 points) still have relegation danger lurking just below them.

Match Analysis

Milan come into this on a mixed run: a vital 2-1 away win at Genoa was preceded by back‑to‑back defeats to Atalanta (2-3 at home) and Sassuolo (0-2 away). Those three games show both sides of Pioli’s team – capable of producing 20 shots at home to Atalanta, yet vulnerable at the back, conceding three and then failing to score in Emilia. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with 1.364 xG for and 1.488 xG against, underlining a side that is creating but also allowing chances. Cagliari’s recent form has been similarly uneven but in a different way. They beat Torino 2-1 at home, but that is their only win in the last three, having lost 0-2 to Udinese and drawn 0-0 away at Bologna. The attacking numbers are modest: 0.6 goals scored per game across the last five, from an average of 1.078 xG, while conceding 1.8 goals off 1.56 xG against. That hints at a defence that is being opened up too easily and an attack that struggles to turn half‑chances into goals, despite showing some volume – like 22 shots versus Udinese.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5, with the over 2.5 prediction at 48.0% and the final call being under 2.5. Two of Milan’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Atalanta, 2-1 vs Genoa), but Cagliari have been largely cagey: only one of their last three has gone over (the 2-1 against Torino, alongside a 0-2 and a 0-0). With Milan at 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game recently, and Cagliari at 0.6 for and 1.8 against, plus relatively modest xG numbers for both, a narrow Milan win in the under 2.5 range is a logical call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Milan
Corners in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate total, with expected total corners set at 9.6. Across the last three matches, Milan’s corners have been fairly balanced (4-4 vs Genoa, 2-2 vs Atalanta, 3-2 vs Sassuolo), suggesting a team that doesn’t rely excessively on wide bombardment. Cagliari, meanwhile, have had more fluctuation – 5-1 vs Torino, 8-4 vs Udinese, then only 2-7 at Bologna – which matches a side that can rack up corners when chasing games. Overall, their styles point towards a match that sits around the predicted corners mark rather than turning into a barrage from the flanks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Milan
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.97, in line with a match where Milan should be on the front foot but Cagliari still carry some threat. Milan’s last three have seen them take 8, 20 and 7 shots, while conceding 11, 9 and 13 – quite a swing depending on game state and opposition. Cagliari have produced 13, 22 and 8 shots in their last three, facing 10, 9 and 13, numbers that back up this shots prediction and tie in with their xG: they do create, but not always high‑quality chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Milan wins by X goals. Negative = Cagliari wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Milan vs Cagliari with expected spread of +1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Milan vs Cagliari
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +1.12 in Milan’s favour, meaning the home side are projected to win by just over a goal on average. In their last three, Milan’s results show a combined goal difference of -1 (two defeats by two‑goal margins and a one‑goal win), while Cagliari’s is also -1 (a 2-1 win, a 0-2 loss and a 0-0 draw). Given Milan’s superior league position, higher win probability and stronger underlying numbers, that expected spread aligns with a 1-0 or 2-0 type victory.

Final Prediction

Milan’s higher ceiling in attack, home advantage and overall quality across the season give them the clear edge over a Cagliari side that struggles for goals and has a leaky defence. Cagliari’s best hope is to keep the game slow and compact, but if Milan impose their rhythm, the Sardinians may find it hard to hold out for 90 minutes. A key factor to watch will be how early Milan can convert pressure into chances; if they score first, the predicted home win and narrow margin look very likely to follow.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel