Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Inter Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Milan

Home Team
23%
VS

Inter

Away Team
58%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Milan W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 0)

Inter W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.87
# Clean Sheets: 2

Inter

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.35
# Clean Sheets: 4

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are favoured to win this Derby della Madonnina, with a 58.0% probability of an away victory against just 23.0% for Milan, and 19.0% for the draw. The model points to goals as well, with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0%. Inter top Serie A on 67 points, 10 clear of second-placed Milan on 57, underlining the current balance of power in the city.

Match Analysis

Milan come in from a mixed run: a 2-0 away win at Cremonese, a 0-1 home loss to Parma despite heavy dominance in shots, and a 1-1 home draw with Como. Across those three matches they’ve scored three and conceded two, with performances fluctuating between wasteful (25 shots versus Parma, no goals) and controlled (limiting Cremonese to a clean sheet away). The underlying numbers are kinder than the results: over the last five games Milan average 1.2 goals scored but a much stronger 2.194 expected goals, and concede just 0.6 goals from 0.872 xG against, with two clean sheets in that spell. Inter, by contrast, look like a machine. They arrive on a three-game winning streak: 2-0 versus Genoa, 2-0 at Lecce and a 3-2 thriller against Juventus. That’s seven goals scored, two conceded, and a sense they can control games (14-6 shots v Genoa, 24-3 at Lecce) or go punch-for-punch with top opposition (21-11 shots v Juventus). The advanced metrics explain the confidence: Inter average 2.4 goals scored in their last five games from 2.566 xG, and haven’t conceded at all in that period on average (0.0 goals from just 0.35 xG against), with four clean sheets. Milan’s defence is solid, but Inter’s attack and defensive stinginess are operating at a higher level right now.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0%, and the recent patterns partly support that. Two of Inter’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (the 3-2 against Juventus plus two 2-0 wins), while all three of Milan’s most recent outings have finished under 2.5 (2-0, 0-1, 1-1). Still, Inter’s average of 2.4 goals scored from 2.566 xG and Milan’s solid attacking xG (2.194) suggest enough attacking intent on both sides to tilt this fixture towards over rather than under 2.5.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Milan
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.56, which fits the way both teams have been playing. Milan’s last three league games featured 20, 25 and 6 attempts of their own, while Inter racked up 14, 24 and 21, routinely outshooting opponents. With Inter’s xG at 2.566 and Milan’s at 2.194 over their recent five-match sample, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s reflects two attacks that consistently create chances rather than relying on isolated moments.

Final Prediction

Inter’s edge comes from their balance: they are scoring more, conceding virtually nothing, and sit 10 points clear at the top with a 58.0% win probability backing them up. Milan’s underlying numbers show they can trouble anyone, but their inconsistency in turning xG into goals is a concern. The key factor to watch will be whether Milan’s attack can finally match its chances against an Inter side that has been ruthlessly efficient at both ends of the pitch.

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