Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Parma Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Milan

Home Team
94%
VS

Parma

Away Team
3%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Milan D W W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)

Parma W W L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.93
# Clean Sheets: 2

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.96
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are clear favourites here, with a huge 94.0% probability of a home win against 12th‑placed Parma, reflecting the seven‑place and 25‑point gap between the sides (Milan 2nd on 54 points, Parma 12th on 29). The model also leans towards a tight game in terms of scoring, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 48.0% and a low 50.0% chance that both teams score, pointing to a controlled Milan victory rather than a shootout.

Match Analysis

Milan come into this match on a solid run: a home draw with Como (1-1) followed by away wins at Pisa (2-1) and Bologna (3-0). Even when they haven’t dominated the stats — Como actually matched them on shots, and Bologna out-shot them 13-10 — Milan have been clinical and efficient. Their five‑game averages back this up: 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per match, with very strong underlying numbers at 2.234 expected goals (xG) for and just 0.926 xG against. Two clean sheets in the last five underline how difficult they are to break down when they control the tempo. Parma’s recent form is more mixed but not without positives. They’ve won two of their last three, beating Verona 2-1 at home and Bologna 1-0 away, before a heavy 4-1 home loss to Juventus. Interestingly, they completely dominated Verona in volume (27-4 shots, 12-1 corners), but their broader five‑game averages show limitations: only 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, with less than 1.0 xG for (0.986) and a worrying 1.964 xG against. That profile suggests a team that can have good spells, but tends to allow opponents too many good chances – a dangerous combination away at one of the league’s strongest sides.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points slightly towards an under 2.5 prediction at 48.0%, consistent with Milan’s habit of controlling games and Parma’s low scoring output. Two of Milan’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Pisa, 3-0 vs Bologna), but their average of 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus sub‑1.0 xG conceded, supports the idea of Milan limiting Parma’s chances. For Parma, two of their last three also went over 2.5 (2-1 Verona, 1-4 Juventus), yet their five‑game averages — 0.8 scored, 1.2 conceded, and under 1.0 xG for — suggest they may struggle to contribute much to the scoreline at San Siro.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Milan
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.84, suggesting a match with a decent but not frantic shooting volume. Milan’s last three have seen them register 6, 7, and 10 shots, while conceding 10, 7, and 13, matching the idea that they don’t always pepper the goal but create high‑quality chances instead, in line with their strong xG of 2.234. Parma’s recent games have been extreme in both directions — 27 shots against Verona, but only 5 at Bologna and 10 versus Juventus — and with their average xG at just 0.986, the shots prediction points towards Milan generating the bulk of the shooting while keeping Parma relatively quiet compared to that Verona outlier.

Final Prediction

Milan’s edge comes from their balance: a top‑two side with strong form, superior xG numbers at both ends, and a home advantage against a mid‑table Parma who concede far too many quality chances on average. Parma have shown they can compete in spells, but sustaining that against one of the league’s most efficient attacks and tightest defences is a different task. A key factor to watch will be whether Parma can translate any early pressure into shots and corners, or if Milan’s control quickly turns this into the kind of low‑scoring home win the numbers suggest.

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