Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Torino Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Milan

Home Team
77%
VS

Torino

Away Team
10%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Milan L W W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)

Torino W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.09
# Clean Sheets: 2

Torino

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.27
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are strong favourites at San Siro, with a 77.0% chance of taking all three points against 14th‑placed Torino, who are given just a 10.0% chance of an upset (draw at 13.0%). The model points firmly to a home win and leans towards an over 2.5 prediction for goals, with a 52.0% probability of at least three being scored. Sitting 2nd in Serie A and chasing Inter, Milan are expected to assert their superiority over a Torino side hovering above the relegation battle on 33 points.

Match Analysis

Milan’s recent form has been quietly efficient rather than spectacular: two wins and one defeat in their last three games, all low‑scoring affairs. They edged Inter 1-0 at home and controlled Cremonese 2-0 away, before a narrow 1-0 loss at Lazio. Across those matches they have generally out-shot opponents (notably 20-15 at Cremonese) and have shown an ability to manage games, even when not racking up big scorelines. The advanced numbers underline a side that creates more than it finishes. Over the last five matches Milan average just 0.8 goals scored but a much healthier 1.788 expected goals, suggesting wasteful finishing rather than a lack of chances. Defensively they concede only 0.6 goals per game, with 1.094 xG against and two clean sheets in that spell, pointing to a solid, well-structured back line. Torino arrive from an up‑and‑down run: a 4-1 home win over Parma, a gritty but losing effort at Napoli (2-1), and a 2-0 home victory against Lazio. Those results show they can produce a punch at home, but away from Turin their limitations are clearer. Over their last five, they average just 0.6 goals scored and a worrying 3.0 conceded, backed up by only 0.702 xG created and 2.27 xG allowed per game – numbers that hint at both defensive fragility and an attack that struggles to generate clear chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it here, with a 52.0% probability of the match featuring at least three goals. Only one of Milan’s last three league games has gone over 2.5 goals (the 2-0 at Cremonese and 1-0 vs Inter both stayed under, while the 1-0 loss at Lazio was also under), but their xG profile – 1.788 for and 1.094 against per game – suggests there is room for higher scorelines if finishing improves. Torino’s last three have seen two games over 2.5 (4-1 vs Parma, 2-1 loss at Napoli) and one under (2-0 vs Lazio), and with them conceding 3.0 goals per match recently, they may open the door to a more open contest despite Milan’s recent run of under 2.5 scorelines.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Milan
Corners in last 5 matches
Torino
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.52 total, pointing towards around ten corners in the game. Milan’s last three have produced mixed corner counts: 9-1 at Lazio, 1-6 at home to Inter, and 7-6 at Cremonese – a sign that their games can swing between tight, central battles and wide, crossing-heavy encounters. Torino’s recent corner numbers (2-7 vs Parma, 2-11 at Napoli, 6-9 vs Lazio) show they often allow opponents to accumulate corners, which fits a pattern of defending deep and soaking pressure; that should help Milan rack up a healthy share of the predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Milan
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With an expected total of 25.26 efforts, the shots prediction points to a reasonably lively attacking game. Milan’s last three matches saw shot totals of 24 (17-7 vs Lazio), 20 (9-11 vs Inter), and 35 (20-15 vs Cremonese), underlining their tendency to generate and allow a fair volume of attempts. Torino’s recent outings have been lower but still active – 15-6 vs Parma, 7-14 at Napoli, 13-12 vs Lazio – and when combined with Milan’s higher xG and attacking output, the expected shots figure looks realistic.

Final Prediction

Milan’s edge lies in their combination of league position, defensive solidity and superior underlying attacking numbers, even if the raw goal tally has been modest of late. Torino’s poor defensive metrics and low xG going forward make it hard to see them consistently troubling the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Milan can finally align their chance creation with more clinical finishing; if they do, the predicted home win and tilt towards over 2.5 goals should both come into play.

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